US gives notice: South Africa and Rwanda could lose AGOA access two years early
Congress extended AGOA to the end of 2028 two months ago. The President has now given notice of intent to remove South Africa, its largest beneficiary, and Rwanda from 1 January 2027.
On 2 September, the President signed a law extending the African Growth and Opportunity Act to 31 December 2028.
Two months later, on 2 November, the President notified Congress, South Africa and Rwanda of his intent to terminate them from AGOA "as of January 1, 2027". If carried out, the terminations would take effect two years before the new expiry.
The extension is in Public Law 119-103, signed on 2 September.
It amends the programme's end date from 2026 to 2028.
What the notice says
The notice records both a presidential finding and an intention communicated to the countries and Congress. Jamieson Greer, the US Trade Representative, says the President found that both governments "are engaging in practices that are inconsistent with AGOA's eligibility criteria". The statement gives grounds for each country and no trade values or product list.
For South Africa the grounds are trade and investment barriers, corruption, and threats to US security interests. For Rwanda they add rule of law, political pluralism, worker rights and human rights.
The annual eligibility review held its hearing on 23 July, before the notice. Under that notice, the President must terminate a country that fails the requirements, and may instead withdraw duty-free treatment for specific products.
How much trade is at risk
Rwanda shows what that second route looks like. In 2018 the President suspended duty-free treatment for Rwandan apparel only, judging that more effective than ending the designation. Rwanda's apparel benefits have been suspended since 31 July 2018.
USTR data put total US goods imports from Rwanda at $43.3m in 2025.
The wire-reported figure for South Africa measures trade using AGOA. It does not estimate losses. Al Jazeera reports it exported about $1.7bn of goods to the US under AGOA in 2025, mainly motor vehicles and parts, farm products and wine.
South Africa's trade department says that is about 10 percent of its exports to the US and 1 percent of its global exports.
Total US goods imports from South Africa were $16.5bn in 2025.
Per Business News South Africa, naamsa's position is that the 25 percent US tariff on vehicles "largely cancels out AGOA's duty benefit for vehicles". Vehicle exports to the US fell 83.2 percent in 2025, from 24,682 units to 4,136.
Citrus is the other product group identified as exposed. South Africa sent the US an average of $55m of oranges and $30m of mandarins a year over five years to 2025.
The industry's conditional estimate is up to 35,000 jobs at risk if those sales shrink.
Reaction and USTR's stated aim
Pretoria's trade department had said it was prepared for a negative outcome and open to dialogue. The US ambassador in Pretoria called the result "a predictable and preventable outcome".
USTR says the administration "is working to ensure our African partners take the necessary steps to meet the eligibility criteria". Rwanda was sanctioned over M23 on 28 October, but USTR's statement does not mention M23 or the DRC.
What would make it final
In CTOL's view, the notice communicates the political decision; a proclamation would give it legal effect.
Eligibility changes were signed as proclamations between 21 and 29 December in each year from 2018 to 2023, so late December is the window to watch. That includes Gabon's termination on 29 December 2023.
Watch for a proclamation in the Federal Register. Termination of both countries from 1 January 2027 confirms the notice. One country only, or product-level limits as with Rwanda in 2018, would narrow it. The evidence so far is USTR's text and a wire-reported figure for AGOA trade, not customs data by product.