Airbus needs 323 fourth-quarter deliveries to hit 870, 13% more than last year

Airbus has delivered 547 aircraft in nine months and left its guidance unchanged. The target now needs a fourth quarter 13% above last year's and €5.77 billion of free cash flow.

Airbus must deliver 323 aircraft in the last three months of the year to hit its target. It kept guidance for "around 870" deliveries on 28 October and has handed over 547 so far.

The nine month release shows revenue of €50.6 billion, up 7%. Third quarter revenue fell 2%.

Profit is not the problem. The €7.5 billion adjusted EBIT guide needs €3.0 billion in the fourth quarter, 0.8% above last year. Adjusted EBIT is already up 8% over nine months at €4.5 billion. The third quarter figure fell 9% to €1.77 billion.

Deliveries must rise 13% and free cash flow 5%. The required delivery increase has no precedent.

Airbus delivered 247 aircraft in the fourth quarter of 2023, 269 in 2024 and 286 in 2025. Each figure is the full year less the nine month total. The sources are the full year 2025 release and the nine month 2025 release.

The fourth quarter has taken a bigger share of the year each time, at 34%, 35% and 36%. A 323 quarter would take 37% of an 870 year. That is 37 aircraft more than the best of the last three.

The A320 Family is 78% of deliveries this year, 428 of 547. The fourth quarter jump is mostly a narrowbody story.

The delivery range and past misses

Airbus does not need to reach 870 exactly. CEO Guillaume Faury said on the 29 July half year call that "around means plus/minus 20". That makes the range 850 to 890. The floor of 850 needs 303 aircraft, still 6% above last year's fourth quarter.

Airbus has fallen short of its own requirement before. At the nine month mark of 2024 its guide was around 770, which needed 273 in the fourth quarter. It delivered 269. In 2025 the guide at the same point was around 820, which needed 313. Airbus cut it to around 790 late in the year and delivered 793, with a fourth quarter of 286.

The pace has to jump. Airbus delivered 114 aircraft in the first quarter, 237 in the second and 196 in the third. That is 79 a month in the second quarter and 65 in the third. The fourth needs 108, which is 37% above the second quarter pace. Against last year's fourth quarter, that is 37 more aircraft, or about three more every week.

The third quarter brought 196 deliveries against 201 a year earlier. Airbus explains the 2% fall in third quarter revenue as "the lower volume of commercial aircraft deliveries", partly offset by services.

The cash requirement

The cash target is more achievable. Free cash flow before customer financing was a €1.27 billion outflow after nine months. Reaching the €4.5 billion guide means €5.77 billion in the fourth quarter.

Airbus has done close to that twice. The fourth quarter brought €5.31 billion in 2024 and €5.49 billion in 2025. Both came in years when fourth quarter deliveries missed the requirement. The 2026 quarter must beat last year's by 5%. That is a smaller step than the 13% asked of deliveries.

Net cash has fallen from €12.2 billion at the end of December to €7.0 billion, a drop of 42%. Gross cash fell from €27.2 billion to €21.9 billion.

Airbus ties the outflow to working capital. It cites an inventory build linked to a delivery profile weighted to the year end, plus the planned ramp up. The nine month presentation puts company wide inventory at €51.4 billion, up €9.7 billion since December. Part of that stock turns into cash only when aircraft leave the final assembly line in December.

Supply constraints

Engines are the main supply risk, and Airbus has named them. In February it said Pratt & Whitney's failure to commit to the number of engines ordered was hurting guidance and the ramp up. The April first quarter release called Pratt & Whitney "the key pacer of the ramp-up trajectory", with an impact on 2026 and 2027.

On 29 July Faury said that, at that point, no aircraft were waiting for delivery solely because of engines. He added that Airbus holds no engine buffer, with no engines ahead of what it needs from Pratt & Whitney. Any late engine delivery therefore moves a delivery date. He also said the A320 panel issue is "behind us".

On the 28 October call Faury said the A321 stringer surface-protection issue does not change his view of 2026 or 2027 deliveries. He said Airbus has inspected all in-production A330s after a horizontal tail plane finding, and aircraft now leaving production can be delivered. Airbus also said its EUR 5 billion share buyback is still planned to start in the second half of 2026, Investing.com's transcript shows.

Demand is not the constraint. The order book stands at 9,310 aircraft after 1,105 net orders this year, against 514 in the first nine months of 2025. Airbus still expects 70 to 75 A320 Family aircraft a month by the end of 2027. The question is how many orders become deliveries by 31 December.

Profit guidance already assumes a softer second half. The 7.5 billion guide leaves €4.77 billion of adjusted EBIT for the second half, against €4.92 billion a year earlier. CFO Thomas Toepfer named three headwinds on 29 July against the profit from more deliveries: foreign exchange hedging, the Spirit AeroSystems integration and higher R&D.

What airlines and investors face

For an airline or lessor with a December slot, the risk sits in the last four weeks. A late year delivery is better planned as a January one. Extension and pre delivery payment terms should be priced on that basis.

For Airbus shareholders and creditors, the delivery count drives the cash. A company that needs a 13% jump in one quarter has little room for slippage in any week of December.

Airbus publishes full year results on 18 February 2027. In 2024 and 2025 the fourth quarter missed the requirement by 4 and 27 aircraft. Repeat those misses and 2026 deliveries land at 866 or 843. Both miss 870. A shortfall of 27 would also fall below the 850 floor Faury restated on 29 July.