MAX 10 certification could arrive next week, but Boeing's 737 line is still below rate
Reuters says the FAA could approve the MAX 10 as soon as next week. Boeing still guides first delivery for 2027, while 737 deliveries slipped to 124 in the third quarter from 129.
The FAA is close to approving the last uncertified Boeing 737, but nothing has been signed. A final FAA management meeting remains, according to AvWeb. Approval will not make Boeing build jets faster.
The Federal Aviation Administration is set to approve the 737 MAX 10 as soon as next week, Reuters reported on 16 October. Boeing and the agency held the final type-certification board meeting Friday, according to The Air Current. Boeing must still deliver a statement of completion before the signatures. A type certificate is the FAA's approval of an aircraft design. The model is about 30% of Boeing's outstanding 737 backlog, meaning orders not yet delivered, according to AvWeb. Built jets are waiting for the certificate.
The certificate changes when cash can start, not how fast it arrives. Boeing has guided first delivery for 2027 since April, and approval does not bring that forward. A certificate lets Boeing sell the specification; it does not create the aircraft, engines, or wings. The 737 factory and its suppliers set the pace. The third quarter showed a line that has not reached the rate it is moving toward.
The MAX 7 shows how the sequence works. The FAA signed it off on 3 August and said it had issued an amended type certificate and an updated Production Limitation Record after almost a decade of review. The Air Current reports that its board also met on a Friday and Boeing signed the certificate the following week. Boeing's second-quarter results came out a week before that signing and still anticipated first delivery of both variants in 2027.
Boeing's tables show how little slack the line has. It delivered 114 737s in the first quarter, 129 in the second, and 124 in the third. The old rate of 42 jets a month would produce 126 over three months; the new target of 47 would produce 141.
The third quarter came in just under the old benchmark and well short of the new one. That matters because Boeing said in July that it had begun transitioning production to the higher rate.
Boeing delivered 114, 129 and 124 737s in the first three quarters of 2026; three months at the 42 a month rate would be 126 and at the 47 a month rate 141.
View data
| Measure | Airplanes |
|---|---|
| Q1 2026 deliveries | 114 |
| Q2 2026 deliveries | 129 |
| Q3 2026 deliveries | 124 |
| Three months at 42 a month | 126 |
| Three months at 47 a month | 141 |
The nine-month count tells the same story. Boeing has delivered 367 737s so far this year, according to its quarterly tables. Nine months at 42 a month would be 378, leaving the company 11 aircraft short of the old pace. Nine months at 47 would be 423.
Deliveries and production are different measures because customer readiness and stored inventory change the timing. A line truly running at 47 would still be unlikely to show a quarter 17 aircraft below that mark. The gap is 141 minus 124.
Seasonality carries some weight because analysts expected slower August and September months.
Seasonality does not explain why a line said to be moving to 47 a month delivered fewer aircraft than in the previous quarter. Boeing chief executive Ortberg told a Morgan Stanley conference in September that the plant was not yet stable at 47. He said wing production was the constraint, according to Leeham News. The FAA has supported the move from 42 to 47 a month. Support for a rate on paper and production at that rate are different things.
The wing constraint matters most after the first deliveries. Leeham reports that built MAX 7 and MAX 10 aircraft are expected to reach customers from early next year. That inventory would be drawn down over about 18 months. The stored jets are already built and sit outside the factory's monthly output. They are useful in early 2027 but finite.
Spread over 18 months, the drawdown adds a steady trickle to each quarter's count rather than a step change. The 2027 delivery tables will flatter the MAX 10 before showing whether the factory can sustain it. Early 2027 numbers will mostly show inventory; the second half will be the first honest test of the line. Once the stored jets are gone, every MAX 10 competes with the MAX 8 for the same wings and final-assembly slots.
Certification is still the larger event. It removes the last regulatory risk on the family and frees parked aircraft. The upside is a one-off inventory drawdown plus a share of a line that is already full, not a higher run rate.
An airline holding a MAX 10 slot for summer 2027 is exposed to delivery timing. Early MAX 10 deliveries should come from stored jets. Once those clear, a MAX 10 slot competes with the MAX 8 for the same line, and the third quarter shows little spare capacity. A late delivery stream would push back the start of the airline's growth plan.
Some open items remain even with the board behind it. Boeing disclosed a navigation software glitch in late September. The FAA determined on 2 October that it posed no safety concern and did not need to be fixed as a condition of certification. The permanent fix is still in development, according to AvWeb.
The timing is not guaranteed. An FAA spokeswoman told The Air Current that certification timelines are dictated by safety. "As soon as next week" is therefore a report from sources, not an order.
Boeing's fourth-quarter and full-year delivery release in early January 2027 will show whether the line reached 141 a quarter by December. If the fourth-quarter 737 count stays near 125, the MAX 10 certificate will have arrived at a factory with no spare slots to sell it.