China's Graduate Exam Registrations Plunge Amid Degree Depreciation and Record Youth Unemployment in 2025

Decline in China's Graduate Exam Registrations Amid Depreciation of Degrees and Historic High Youth Unemployment Rate: A Pivotal Shift in 2025

In a notable shift, the number of students registering for China’s national graduate school entrance examination has dropped to 3.88 million in 2025, marking a significant decrease of 500,000 compared to 2024. This drop represents the largest decline since the early 2000s, continuing a trend that began in 2024. Compared to the peak of 4.74 million in 2023, the number of registrants has now decreased by nearly 860,000—a sign of shifting priorities among China’s youth regarding postgraduate education.

Trends in Graduate Entrance Exam Registrations

From 2015 to 2023, the number of applicants for China’s graduate entrance exams grew rapidly, increasing from 1.649 million to 4.74 million. However, 2024 marked the first decline in over a decade, with registrations dropping to 4.38 million—a reduction of 360,000 from the previous year. The downward trend continued in 2025, with a further drop to 3.88 million, representing a reduction of 500,000 candidates compared to 2024.

Why Are Fewer Students Choosing to Pursue Graduate Studies?

The reasons behind the decline in graduate exam registrations are multifaceted, reflecting evolving attitudes towards education, employment, and economic feasibility:

Diminishing Return on Investment for Graduate Studies: The rapid expansion of graduate education has led to a perception of credential inflation, where the value of a graduate degree in enhancing career prospects has lessened. Many students are beginning to see a reduced return on their investment in terms of improved employment outcomes.
Weaker Impact on Job Competitiveness: There is a growing sentiment among students that a postgraduate degree does not significantly improve employment opportunities. The competition in the job market remains high, and the benefits of a master’s degree are not always guaranteed to outweigh the costs.
Increased Economic and Time Costs:
- Higher Tuition Fees for Professional Programs: Professional master's programs often come with high tuition fees, adding to the financial burden on students.
- Extended Program Durations: Some professional master's programs have extended their duration to three years, increasing both time and financial investments.
- High Living Costs in Major Cities: The cost of living in China’s major urban centers is substantial, further adding to the overall expense of pursuing graduate education.

The decline in graduate entrance exam applications is accompanied by other noteworthy trends:

Increasing Popularity of Civil Service Examinations: Interest in public sector jobs remains high. In 2025, the number of applicants who passed the qualification review for the national civil service exam reached 3.416 million—an all-time high. This highlights a shift towards more stable employment options as students reconsider the value of postgraduate education.
Continued Growth in Graduate Enrollment: Despite the decrease in exam registrations, graduate admissions are still on the rise. In 2023, 1.302 million students were admitted to graduate programs, an increase of over 109.5% compared to a decade ago. This paradox reflects efforts by universities to maintain enrollment even as student interest wanes.
Rising Difficulty of Graduate Admissions: Admission has become increasingly challenging, with higher cutoff scores for many programs in 2024. Some universities have also replaced internal exams with standardized national exams, making it tougher for prospective students.

Despite fewer registrations, experts believe the number of committed candidates might not have significantly decreased. The drop is primarily attributed to students who were previously uncertain about pursuing a graduate degree now opting out entirely. Additionally, a significant number of applicants are still previous graduates rather than fresh undergraduates, with ratios in 2022 and 2023 exceeding 96% compared to that year’s graduates.

Broader Implications of the Decline

The decline in graduate entrance exam registrations points to a shift in how China’s youth perceive higher education, employment prospects, and economic realities. Let’s explore how this trend is impacting various stakeholders:

1. Impact on the Education Market

Private Education Providers: Companies such as New Oriental, which have benefited from the booming test preparation market, might face revenue pressures due to the shrinking pool of exam-takers. This could push them to diversify into other services, like vocational training or preparation for studying abroad.
Higher Education Institutions: Universities may face challenges balancing expanded graduate programs with fewer applicants. While top-tier institutions are likely to remain attractive, lower-ranked universities might struggle with under-enrollment, which could affect their revenues and diminish their influence.

2. Employment and Workforce Trends

Employment Landscape: The diminishing appeal of graduate degrees suggests a shift towards more specialized skills. Industries that require targeted technical qualifications, such as artificial intelligence, green energy, and advanced manufacturing, may see more competition from students opting for vocational training or direct employment.
Public Sector Attraction: The surge in civil service exam applications points to a desire for the stability associated with government jobs. This could result in fewer young people seeking opportunities in dynamic, private sector industries, potentially impacting innovation.

3. Macro-Economic and Societal Signals

Youth Confidence in Economic Returns: The reluctance to pursue graduate studies may reflect broader concerns about economic stability, wage growth, and the financial viability of long-term investments in education.
Impact on Housing and Consumption: With fewer graduates delaying entry into the workforce, the timeline for purchasing homes might accelerate, boosting the real estate market. Simultaneously, the funds that would have gone towards education costs might be redirected into other areas of consumption.

4. Responses from Stakeholders

Government and Policymakers: To make graduate programs more appealing, policymakers may consider offering incentives such as subsidies or loan forgiveness, especially in STEM fields or public service sectors. Alternatively, more funding might be directed towards vocational training to better align the workforce with market needs.
Corporate Adjustments: Companies may increasingly focus on skills-based hiring over degree-based hiring, especially in high-demand sectors like technology, healthcare, and renewable energy.

A Broader Cultural Shift: From Academic Credentials to Pragmatic Choices

This decline in registrations reflects a growing pragmatism among young Chinese professionals. Today’s youth are increasingly prioritizing financial stability and work-life balance over traditional academic credentials, reshaping not just education but also corporate policies and long-term economic growth models.

Key Trends to Monitor Going Forward

Alternative Education Pathways: Vocational training and online education platforms are likely to see growth as more students choose cost-effective and practical alternatives to graduate school.
Career Choices Aligned with National Priorities: With a focus on state-backed sectors like infrastructure, technology self-reliance, and defense, we may see a shift in career choices towards these areas.
Regional Disparities: While urban areas might see sharper declines in graduate registrations, rural or smaller cities may experience relatively stable interest due to fewer alternative opportunities.

Conclusion

The decline in graduate exam registrations marks a pivotal moment in China’s socio-economic evolution. It represents a recalibration of individual aspirations against the broader economic realities of today. Investors, educators, and policymakers should watch these trends closely—seeking opportunities in workforce upskilling, vocational technology platforms, and high-growth sectors like green tech and software. This evolving landscape could redefine China’s educational and employment framework, setting the stage for a more pragmatic and diversified future.