Goldman Sachs Economist Predicts US Will Avoid Recession in 2024

Goldman Sachs' chief economist, Jan Hatzius, forecasts a mere 15% chance of the US slipping into a recession in the next year, citing historical trends and current economic indicators. Hatzius attributes this optimistic outlook to the significant drop in inflation and continued strong economic growth. He also anticipates potential interest rate cuts by the Fed and emphasizes the positive impact on the stock market. Despite potential 'wild cards,' including geopolitical tension, Hatzius remains confident in the economy's resilience. His optimistic projections align with a survey indicating a low likelihood of recession, and investor expectations for inflation to return to the Fed's target. Hatzius' positive outlook is underpinned by technological advancements and the potential economic influence of drugs like Ozempic. Overall, his stance reflects widespread confidence in the US economy's ability to avoid a recession in 2024.