Trackers see 1.0 Hormuz tankers a day; Lloyd's counted 95 transits in a week

Tracking data shows Hormuz nearly empty, but Lloyd's List counts traffic continuing. The two measure different things; EIA's 8 December outlook will show whether barrels are lost.

Hormuz looks almost empty on tracking data, yet Lloyd's List counts show traffic has not stopped. The two sources disagree by a factor of about 19. One counts ships that broadcast their position, the other counts ships that cross.

IMF PortWatch detected 1.0 tankers a day through the strait from 1 to 8 November, after 0.7 in October and 43.5 in February. Lloyd's List Intelligence counted 95 non-Iranian-linked tanker and gas carrier transits in the week of 19 to 25 October. The counts show how much traffic the trackers miss. They do not show that the corridor is a single point of failure. That would take a loss of barrels.

Tracking data misses ships that Lloyd's List still counts

PortWatch counts vessels its tracking detects. The shuttle, per AP, runs without transponders. AP, citing Lloyd's List Intelligence, reports operators moving oil at night with location systems and phones off, in a US-protected lane near Oman. AP says this has helped return Gulf shipments to roughly prewar levels, at high cost in time, money and sailors' lives.

Lloyd's 95 transits over 7 days work out to 13.6 a day. PortWatch's October figure of 0.7 a day is about 19 times lower, and its 1.0 for 1 to 8 November is a later reading from a different period. The two count different vessel populations, so the ratio is a measurement gap and not a count of missing ships. Lloyd's own verdict is that traffic "has not plummeted".

Production is mostly back, but Brent is still high

The EIA's November outlook puts Middle East crude shut-ins at 2.5 million barrels a day in October, down from 10.9 million at the May peak. 10.9 minus 2.5 leaves 8.4 million restored, 77% of the peak. EIA's 3 November note credits Hormuz flows, alternative routes and ship-to-ship transfers for a 1.8 million barrel a day rise in third-quarter refinery inputs.

Brent still averaged $124 in October. EIA cites falling inventories, tanker attacks, constrained shipping capacity and higher transport costs. Which matters more, inventories or transport cost, is not settled.

The shuttle depends on protection that nobody has guaranteed

UKMTO logged 13 notices classed as Attack between 1 and 11 November, including 10 November with multiple casualties and 11 November with a tanker's engine room hit. AP reports that October saw the most attacks on commercial ships in the strait since March. UKMTO, as summarised by Lloyd's List Intelligence, says most attacked vessels decline to report, so its counts are a floor.

The shuttle runs on US protection that allies will not reinforce with minesweepers until fighting stops. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said at the G7 on 10 November, "I raised it. I didn't get a response." The shuttle runs while a US blockade of Iranian ports continues and Iran keeps attacking shipping.

Lloyd's List Intelligence sees the failure mode. Its weekly total of non-Iranian-linked transits was 126 in the week to 4 October, then 104, 124 and 116. A severe hit on the shuttle, it says, would first push up tanker rates and then bring a sharp fall once cargoes drop.

The bear case is a scenario, and shipments are not delivered barrels

Kpler's Muyu Xu, quoted by Al Jazeera, says full closure would cut Middle East crude exports from 16.8 to 7.5 million barrels a day. The shortfall is 9.3 million. The US strategic reserve holds 283 million barrels, about 30 days of that gap, a sensitivity and not a forecast. Global strategic stocks outside China and Iran are down nearly 327 million barrels since December 2025. A bear would read high Brent as rational pricing of a market with no slack.

Full closure has not happened. Shut-ins are down 8.4 million from the peak, and Lloyd's reports about 75% of vessels in UKMTO-reported attacks continuing their voyage. That is evidence for the recovery, not proof that enough crude is arriving to rebuild inventories. The risk is not an empty strait but the sudden failure of the workaround keeping oil moving.

Suez and the Red Sea show how rerouting preserves trade by consuming time and capacity. Suez was shut from 5 June 1967 to 5 June 1975, per the Suez Canal Authority. A 1970 US intelligence estimate forecast reopening would add 8 to 9 percent to the world tanker fleet. That was capacity tied up by the detour, a forecast and not a measured loss.

A closer match came in 2024, when the IMF found Suez trade down 50% year on year in January and February. Cape transits rose an estimated 74%, adding 10 days or more. Both cases had an open sea route around the choke point. Hormuz has no sea route around it for cargo loaded inside the Gulf.

The June reopening attempt shows how fast Brent moves

After the 17 June memorandum, Brent futures fell to $72 on 1 July, EIA records. PortWatch tanker counts rose to 5.4 a day in June from 1.3 in May. Strikes resumed on 7 July and Brent passed $100 on 23 July.

EIA's next outlook, due 8 December, can show it. A November Brent spot average above $110, or shut-ins above October's 2.5 million barrels a day, would point to a corridor costing barrels and not only money. Brent alone would signal stress. A fall in Lloyd's weekly transit total below its recent 104 to 126 range, alongside rising shut-ins, would be stronger evidence that the workaround is failing. Until then Hormuz is open, through a workaround that must keep holding.