Iran Stands Firm on Nuclear Rights at Tehran Forum as Negotiations Hang in Balance

Iran Stands Firm on Nuclear Rights at Tehran Forum as Negotiations Hang in Balance

TEHRAN — Today President Masoud Pezeshkian delivered an unambiguous message to the international community on Sunday: Iran will not surrender its nuclear program, regardless of mounting pressure from the United States and its allies.

Addressing over 200 senior officials from 53 countries at the Tehran Dialogue Forum, President Pezeshkian emphasized Iran's legal entitlement to peaceful nuclear technology under the Non-Proliferation Treaty while firmly rejecting any external pressure or coercion aimed at limiting these rights.

The two-day forum, which concludes Monday, represents the most significant diplomatic gathering in Iran since President Trump's return to office, bringing together representatives from dozens of nations to discuss sanctions relief, regional disarmament, and nuclear non-proliferation.

Enrichment Impasse Threatens Talks

Behind the polished diplomatic rhetoric lies a critical impasse. Iranian officials insist on maintaining uranium enrichment capabilities—the very issue that has brought negotiations with the United States to a precarious state.

"We are negotiating, and we will negotiate. We are not after war, but we do not fear any threat," said Pezeshkian, maintaining that Iran would "not withdraw" or "easily lose honorable achievements in military, scientific, and nuclear" fields.

The statement comes as U.S. intelligence agencies reportedly assess that while Tehran is not actively pursuing nuclear weapons, its program stands "on the cusp of being able to weaponize nuclear material." According to monitoring reports, Iran now holds approximately 275 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60 percent—a level unprecedented for any non-nuclear-weapon state and just a technical step away from weapons-grade.

"The market reads these statements through two lenses," explained a commodities strategist at a major European bank. "First as political positioning ahead of the next negotiation round, but second as a genuine red line that could trigger escalation if crossed."

Nuclear Rights vs. International Concerns

Iranian lawmakers issued a statement last week asserting that the country's nuclear rights under the NPT—including research, development, and peaceful use—are non-negotiable. They interpret Article 4 of the treaty as granting Iran "three inalienable rights: first, the right to research and development; second, the right to produce; and third, the right to utilize nuclear energy."

More controversially, these lawmakers claim Iran faces no limitations on enrichment levels and could theoretically enrich up to 93 percent for scientific, medical, and industrial purposes—though such levels would be virtually indistinguishable from weapons-grade material.

Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, a key figure in the ongoing negotiations, emphasized at the forum that Iran is "committed to diplomacy" while looking forward to sanctions being lifted "in a practical and viable manner."

On the sidelines of meetings with the Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs, Araghchi offered insights into the complex diplomatic dance: "The public messages exchanged between the negotiating sides do not necessarily reflect what is said at the negotiating table," he noted. "There is also a media war, and each side tries to use it to its advantage."

Market Tremors Reflect Geopolitical Uncertainty

Financial markets have already begun pricing in various scenarios. Brent crude fell approximately 3 percent last week merely on expectations of a potential agreement that would return Iranian oil to global markets. Currently trading in the $65 per barrel range (+0.15 this week), analysts project prices could spike to $100 or beyond if military action targets Iran's nuclear facilities—a scenario some defense analysts assign a 20-25 percent probability in the second half of 2025.

"We're seeing unprecedented volumes in out-of-the-money oil options," noted a senior derivatives trader at a major commodity house. "Smart money is positioning for extreme scenarios rather than the middle ground."

The uncertainty extends beyond energy markets. War-risk premiums for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz have increased incrementally, while defense sector ETFs remain resilient despite recent price dips. Meanwhile, Iran's currency continues to suffer, with the black-market exchange rate reaching approximately 820,000 rial to the dollar—roughly double the official rate.

Divergent Stakeholder Agendas Complicate Path Forward

The forum underscores the complex web of interests surrounding the nuclear issue. For Iran's leadership, maintaining enrichment capabilities while securing sanctions relief represents both economic necessity and national pride. President Trump's administration, meanwhile, increasingly demands that Iran abandon enrichment entirely—a position Tehran views as unacceptable.

"The Americans speak with contradictory voices," Araghchi observed. "It's unclear whether this reflects a lack of focus in Washington or a negotiating tactic."

European powers, still invested in salvaging elements of the JCPOA nuclear agreement, occupy an increasingly uncomfortable middle ground. China and India, meanwhile, continue importing Iranian oil through "gray" channels while watching developments closely.

The most hawkish position comes from Israel, which views Iran's nuclear advancements as an existential threat. Intelligence sources suggest ongoing covert operations against Iran's nuclear infrastructure, with the possibility of more direct intervention if diplomatic efforts collapse.

Potential Paths Forward

Negotiations have reached the "expert" level, indicating detailed technical discussions rather than mere political posturing. However, sources familiar with the talks suggest fundamental divisions remain unresolved.

"We're not seeing fresh proposals that bridge the core gap," confided a diplomatic source involved in the process. "Both sides understand what the other wants, but neither is willing to make the first significant concession."

The most likely scenario, according to regional analysts, involves a limited "mini-deal" by the third quarter of 2025 that would allow modest Iranian oil exports below 400,000 barrels per day while imposing enhanced monitoring on nuclear activities. However, this would leave fundamental questions of enrichment rights unresolved.

More troubling scenarios include a complete collapse of negotiations, leading to tightened sanctions, or limited military strikes targeting enrichment facilities—a move that would dramatically reshape regional security calculations and energy markets.

As delegates continue discussions into Monday's second day of the forum, the stakes continue to rise. Iran's message is clear: its nuclear program will continue. What remains uncertain is whether diplomacy can channel that program in directions the international community finds acceptable.

"The paradox is that everyone knows what a deal looks like," reflected a veteran Middle East analyst. "The question is whether political realities on both sides allow for the compromises needed to reach it."