Japan's Prime Minister Ishiba Hits Record Low 22% Approval as "Resignation Zone" Looms

Japan's Leadership Crisis: Ishiba's Approval Plummets to Critical Levels

TOKYO — Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's government is teetering on the brink of collapse as his approval rating has plunged to a perilous 22%, according to the latest Kyodo News poll released Sunday. The precipitous decline places his eight-month-old administration firmly in what Japanese political analysts call the "danger zone," with the specter of the "resignation zone" looming just below the 20% threshold.

The dire polling data reveals a widening chasm between the administration and the public, with disapproval soaring to 62%. This marks the third consecutive month that Ishiba's cabinet has remained trapped in politically treacherous territory, creating an increasingly untenable situation as Japan approaches several critical junctures.

In Japanese politics, the term "resignation zone" refers to a critical threshold where a prime minister's public approval rating falls below 30%, signaling a heightened risk of resignation due to diminished political support. This concept is rooted in the observation that Japanese leaders often step down when their approval ratings dip into this precarious range, as it undermines their ability to govern effectively and maintain party confidence.

The Downward Spiral: Tracking the Decline

The latest figures represent a continuation of a troubling trajectory for Ishiba, who took office in October 2024. The Kyodo poll shows a 5.6 percentage point drop from March's already concerning 27.6% approval rating, which itself had fallen 12 points from February.

Other major polling organizations paint an equally grim picture. Jiji Press recorded 23.1% approval in April, while an Asahi Shimbun survey from March showed just 26% support. The consistency across multiple polling entities underscores the gravity of Ishiba's predicament.

"We're witnessing a textbook case of political free-fall," said a veteran political analyst who requested anonymity. "What makes this particularly dangerous for Ishiba is the acceleration of the decline. Losing 12 points in a single month, as we saw in March, suggests fundamental structural problems for his administration."

The erosion places Ishiba in similar territory to former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, whose approval ratings dipped to 20% in late 2023 before his departure from office. However, Ishiba faces an even more precarious situation without the cushion of the Liberal Democratic Party's previous supermajority.

Root Causes: Beyond the Numbers

The collapse in public confidence appears multifaceted, with polling data pointing to several key factors:

The Gift Voucher Controversy

A significant catalyst for the March and April polling collapse was the revelation that Ishiba distributed ¥100,000 gift cards to 15 first-term LDP lawmakers. The practice has been widely interpreted as potentially violating the Political Funds Control Law, reviving memories of earlier LDP financial scandals.

"The timing couldn't have been worse," noted a political science professor at Waseda University. "Just as the public was giving Ishiba a chance to distinguish himself from his predecessors, this scandal reinforced perceptions of business-as-usual corruption within the LDP."

Leadership Vacuum Amid Global Challenges

The polls reveal a deeper crisis of confidence beyond specific scandals. When asked why they disapprove of the cabinet, a plurality of respondents cited "no expectations for the prime minister's leadership" or disappointment with his cabinet's policies.

This leadership perception problem comes at a particularly challenging time for Japan, which faces multiple external pressures, including renewed trade tensions between the United States and China that threaten regional economic stability. Nearly three-quarters of respondents expressed doubt that Japan would secure favorable tariff concessions in upcoming negotiations with the Trump administration.

Paradoxically, among Ishiba's dwindling base of supporters, the most commonly cited reason for backing him was that "there is no other capable candidate for Prime Minister" — hardly a ringing endorsement of his leadership.

The Historical Context: When Japanese Prime Ministers Fall

Japan's political landscape has established clear thresholds for prime ministerial vulnerability. Approval ratings below 30% are widely recognized as entering the "danger zone," while sub-20% support typically triggers what insiders call the "resignation zone."

The historical precedents are stark:

• Yoshirō Mori watched his support collapse to single digits in 2001, forcing his resignation within weeks
• Yoshihide Suga stepped down after three months of approval ratings languishing in the low-20% range
• Even Fumio Kishida, who survived nine months below 30%, had the advantage of LDP supermajorities that Ishiba lacks

"The '20% rule' isn't written into any law, but it might as well be," explained a former LDP cabinet member speaking on condition of anonymity. "Once you break below that threshold, the party machinery starts to view you as an electoral liability rather than an asset. Self-preservation instincts kick in, especially among lawmakers facing reelection."

The Perfect Storm: 2025's Critical Tests

Ishiba faces a series of escalating challenges that will stress-test his diminished political capital:

Immediate Parliamentary Hurdles

The administration must navigate treacherous Diet budget deliberations through May and June with opposition parties controlling several key committees. These forums will provide ample opportunity to keep the gift voucher scandal and other controversies in the public spotlight.

If Ishiba's disapproval ratings remain above 60%, opposition parties are expected to force a no-confidence motion in early June. While the motion would likely fail mathematically, it would create another damaging news cycle and possibly embolden LDP dissidents.

Electoral Reckoning Approaches

The Upper House election scheduled for summer 2025 looms as an existential threat. LDP members facing competitive races have begun privately expressing concerns about downticket effects if Ishiba remains the party's face.

"The calculus becomes very simple for LDP members in marginal seats," said a political strategist with ties to multiple parties. "If being associated with an unpopular prime minister costs them 5-10 points, that's the difference between winning and losing. They'll pressure party leadership for a change."

Symbolic Year for Japan

The timing is particularly significant as 2025 marks several milestone anniversaries in Japanese history: the centennial of the Shōwa era, 80 years since World War II's end, and 70 years since the LDP's founding. This confluence of symbolically important dates amplifies the stakes for national leadership.

Survival Strategies: Limited Options

As pressure mounts, Ishiba's potential paths forward appear increasingly constrained:

The Cabinet Reshuffle Gambit

Previous prime ministers, including Shinzo Abe in 2014 and Kishida in 2023, have attempted to reset public perception through cabinet reshuffles paired with new policy initiatives. Historically, such moves have generated short-term approval bumps of 5-8 percentage points — potentially enough to lift Ishiba back above the critical 30% threshold temporarily.

The High-Risk Dissolution

More dramatically, Ishiba could call a snap lower house election, following precedent from leaders like Ryutaro Hashimoto in 1997. However, current polling suggests this would be extraordinarily risky, potentially resulting in further LDP seat losses and an even more fractured Diet.

The Succession Scenario

If ratings drop below 20%, historical patterns suggest the LDP would move swiftly to replace Ishiba before the Upper House election, similar to the 2001 transition from the deeply unpopular Mori to the charismatic Junichiro Koizumi.

"The party has an institutional memory of how Koizumi's popularity saved them from electoral disaster," noted a political historian. "If Ishiba becomes a clear liability, they won't hesitate to make a change, regardless of any personal loyalty."

Looking Ahead: The Two-Month Window

With approximately two months remaining before campaign season begins in earnest for the Upper House contest, Ishiba faces a narrow window to reverse his political fortunes. His best hope appears to lie in a decisive policy reset combined with meaningful ethics reforms that could restore some measure of public trust.

The next round of polling will be closely watched by political insiders. Any further decline — particularly a drop below the psychologically significant 20% threshold — could trigger rapid developments within the LDP's internal power dynamics.

For Japan, facing significant economic uncertainties and complex diplomatic challenges with the United States, China, Russia, and North Korea, the question of leadership stability becomes increasingly urgent. The coming weeks may determine whether Ishiba can defy historical patterns and salvage his administration, or whether Japan will soon welcome its sixth prime minister in five years.