Kalshi targets perpetual contracts on 60 stocks as Polymarket seeks $1 billion at $21 billion valuation
Kalshi is seeking US regulatory approval to list perpetual futures tied to roughly 60 stocks and ETFs, including Nvidia, Tesla and Apple. The proposed contracts would trade around the clock, allow margin-based positions and have no conventional expiry. If approved, a derivatives design popularized in offshore crypto markets would move directly onto the economics of US-listed equities inside a CFTC-regulated venue.
Polymarket is capitalizing for the same contest over always-on retail order flow. The company named former Amazon and Electronic Arts finance chief Warren Jenson as its first companywide CFO on September 10 while a financing process is reported to be seeking about $1 billion at a $21 billion valuation. Reuters reported that Polymarket has surpassed $1 billion in annualized revenue.
The $21 billion figure provides a useful denominator. Against a revenue run rate above $1 billion, the reported financing price is less than roughly 21 times annualized revenue. The measure is not audited full-year revenue and should not be treated as such, but it shows the premium investors are placing on Polymarket's network and expected US expansion.
Trading volume tells a less favorable story. Kalshi and Polymarket generated $48.4 billion of combined volume in August, according to Piper Sandler data cited by Reuters. Kalshi accounted for about $40 billion - roughly 83% of the combined total and almost five times Polymarket's volume.
Kalshi's regulatory asset is also its product bottleneck
The CFTC approved Kalshi's bitcoin perpetual contract in May through a voluntary product-review process, while warning that the structure may not be suitable for every asset class and telling Kalshi to seek approval before extending it to new classes. That caveat becomes decisive for single-stock perpetuals.
A bitcoin perpetual sits within the commodity-derivatives framework. A continuously traded, margin-based contract whose payoff references Apple or Nvidia would sit much closer to the boundary between futures and securities regulation. Kalshi cannot treat the stock proposal as a routine software extension. Approval determines whether its regulated status is a moat or a ceiling on the product line.
The economics explain why the company is testing that boundary. Perpetuals remove expiry and rolling friction, encourage recurring funding payments and allow 24/7 positions bought on margin. That design can increase trading frequency, but it also imports liquidation, funding-rate and retail-risk mechanics that regulators have mostly encountered in crypto markets rather than single stocks.
Polymarket faces the inverse problem. It has deep strategic capital - including major investment from Intercontinental Exchange - and a large global network, but it is trying to translate that capital into durable US access while Kalshi has taken the volume lead. ICE's involvement supplies exchange, clearing and market-structure expertise; it does not transfer licenses or automatically resolve the legal classification of new products.
The two companies are converging on the same commercial prize from opposite regulatory starting points. Kalshi has a US-regulated derivatives venue and wants to stretch the product perimeter. Polymarket has a heavily capitalized prediction network and needs to regain activity while scaling its regulated US business. The next leg of value creation depends less on whether their interfaces resemble trading apps than on which legal wrapper can support the broadest set of high-frequency, always-on payoffs without losing regulatory permission.
Sources
- Wall Street Journal on Kalshi's stock-perpetual proposal: https://www.wsj.com/finance/currencies/kalshi-looks-to-expand-a-rapidly-growing-universe-of-risky-trading-a7670fde
- CFTC, May 29, 2026 product review: https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/9240-26
- Reuters on Polymarket's CFO and operating scale: https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/polymarket-taps-finance-veteran-warren-jenson-as-cfo-4896314
- Report on Polymarket financing: https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/polymarket-funding-round-led-1789-190301822.html/
- Polymarket CFO announcement: https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/polymarket-appoints-warren-jenson-as-chief-financial-officer-302875360.html
- ICE investment in Polymarket: https://ir.theice.com/press/news-details/2026/Intercontinental-Exchange-Announces-New-600-Million-Investment-in-Polymarket/default.aspx