Perpetua Resources Receives Preliminary $2 Billion Government Loan Package for Strategic Idaho Mine That Would Produce Critical Defense Materials

EXIM's $2 Billion Gambit: How Perpetua Resources Became the Test Case for America's Critical Minerals Strategy

Export-Import Bank advances largest-ever domestic mining finance package as antimony shortage threatens U.S. defense capabilities

The Export-Import Bank of the United States has issued a preliminary project letter and indicative term sheet to Perpetua Resources Corp. for potential $2 billion debt financing—marking what could become the largest government-backed mining deal in recent U.S. history and a definitive test of Washington's commitment to reshoring critical mineral production.

The financing package for Perpetua's Stibnite Gold Project in central Idaho represents more than just another infrastructure loan. It signals a fundamental shift in how the U.S. government views mining projects through the lens of national security, particularly as China and Russia maintain near-monopolistic control over antimony—a mineral essential for ammunition production that the United States currently cannot source domestically.

When Defense Needs Drive Financial Policy

The Stibnite Gold Project sits at the intersection of traditional mining economics and contemporary geopolitical strategy. While primarily a gold operation, the project would produce the only domestically mined antimony in the United States—a metal critical for small arms, munitions, and missile production that currently sees zero U.S. mine output.

Recent supply disruptions from China, which dominates global antimony production alongside Russia, have elevated the strategic importance of domestic alternatives. The U.S. Geological Survey's 2025 methodology highlights antimony among commodities facing high export-restriction risk, providing the national security rationale that enables EXIM to justify financing what might otherwise appear to be a straightforward gold mining venture.

This defense-critical narrative has proven increasingly powerful in securing government backing. The Department of Defense has already provided $6.9 million in additional support through various programs, while Perpetua secured final federal permits in the second quarter of 2025 after eight years of regulatory review.

Beyond Precedent: EXIM's Strategic Pivot

The $2 billion indicative commitment dwarfs previous EXIM mining deals, which typically range from $16 million for zinc operations to $51 million for battery materials. The scale reflects EXIM's expanded mandate under its "Make More in America" and "Supply Chain Resiliency Initiative" programs, explicitly designed to backstop projects with critical U.S. supply chain benefits.

This represents a broader trend across federal lending agencies. While the Department of Energy's Loan Programs Office has focused primarily on clean energy and electric vehicle supply chains—committing $2 billion to Redwood Materials and over $9 billion to BlueOval SK—EXIM has carved out critical minerals as its specialty within the government's industrial policy framework.

Similar moves are emerging across the critical minerals landscape. EXIM has extended letters of interest for Chilean cobalt projects ($317 million) and Greenland rare earth operations (~$120 million), while domestic operations like Empire State Mines have secured smaller packages for zinc production. The pattern suggests systematic deployment of government credit to address specific supply chain vulnerabilities rather than broad sectoral support.

Political Calculus in a Shifting Landscape

The current administration's approach to industrial policy has created more favorable conditions for projects like Stibnite than previous regulatory environments. Recent changes to permitting procedures and EXIM's explicit focus on China competition have improved approval odds for strategically relevant projects.

However, the preliminary nature of EXIM's commitment underscores the complexity of the approval process ahead. Government loans typically include substantial covenants around environmental compliance, milestone-based disbursements, and offtake requirements that can constrain operational flexibility even as they reduce capital costs.

Industry observers suggest approval probability around 70%, but expect the final package size could be reduced from the initial $2 billion request depending on project financing evolution and third-party stream arrangements. The bank will likely require binding antimony offtake agreements with U.S. defense or industrial buyers as a condition of final approval.

Investment Implications: Structure Matters More Than Headlines

For equity investors, the EXIM advancement creates both opportunity and complexity. Government-backed debt can dramatically reduce the weighted average cost of capital for capital-intensive mining projects, potentially accelerating development timelines and improving project economics. However, the covenant structure and disbursement schedule will determine how much financial flexibility Perpetua retains through the construction phase.

The company has indicated plans to finalize royalty or stream arrangements with financial assurance guarantees while commencing early construction work in fall 2025. This sequencing—securing private capital alongside government commitment—represents standard project finance practice but creates multiple execution dependencies that could affect timeline and costs.

Litigation risk remains a significant consideration despite federal permit approval. Active legal challenges, including suits from the Nez Perce Tribe, could result in injunctions that delay construction and tighten liquidity requirements. While recent regulatory changes may reduce some procedural risks, judicial challenges under environmental and treaty rights statutes persist.

Market Catalysts and Timeline Considerations

Near-term developments will determine whether EXIM's preliminary commitment translates into executable financing. Binding antimony offtake agreements represent the most critical milestone, as they provide the national security justification necessary for EXIM board approval while establishing revenue certainty that supports project economics.

The structure and terms of these offtake arrangements will signal market confidence in both the project timeline and antimony pricing assumptions. Given current supply constraints and geopolitical tensions, securing premium pricing for domestic antimony production appears feasible, but contract duration and volume commitments will determine long-term viability.

Simultaneously, royalty and streaming negotiations will establish the debt capacity available for EXIM financing. Industry participants expect these arrangements to include step-down provisions and commodity price adjustments that could affect the government loan sizing and covenant structure.

Strategic Implications for Critical Minerals Finance

Perpetua's EXIM package represents a template for how government agencies may approach future critical minerals projects. The combination of national security rationale, domestic job creation, and supply chain resilience provides political cover for large-scale government credit support while addressing genuine strategic vulnerabilities.

Success in advancing this transaction could encourage similar applications from other critical minerals producers, particularly for materials where U.S. production has declined or disappeared entirely. EXIM's international deal flow suggests appetite for supporting allied production as well, potentially creating financing pathways for projects in friendly jurisdictions that commit to U.S. market supply.

For defense contractors and industrial users of antimony, Perpetua's progress creates both opportunity and urgency around supply security. Early offtake commitments could secure preferential pricing and delivery terms while supporting project financing, but market participants risk facing higher costs and reduced availability if domestic production fails to materialize.

The precedent also matters for mining finance more broadly. Government credit backing could become a standard component of critical minerals project development, fundamentally altering project economics and competitive dynamics within the sector. Companies with projects containing strategic materials may find dramatically improved access to capital, while traditional mining ventures could face relatively higher financing costs.

As EXIM advances toward its spring 2026 board consideration, Perpetua Resources has positioned itself at the center of America's broader strategy to reduce critical mineral dependencies. The success or failure of this financing package will influence not just one company's development timeline, but the entire architecture of how the United States approaches supply chain security through industrial policy. For investors, the immediate opportunity lies in navigating the complex approval process ahead, while the longer-term implications extend far beyond a single mining project in central Idaho.

House Investment Thesis

Category	Summary
Company & Stock (As of Sept 9, 2025)	Perpetua Resources Corp. (USA market). Price: $18.06 USD (-$0.37). Open: $18.71. Volume: 2,125,428. High/Low: $19.77 / $17.60. Last Trade: Tue, Sep 9, 02:15:00 +0200.
Current Deal Status	- EXIM: Issued a Preliminary Project Letter & non-binding term sheet for the $2B application. Board consideration guided for spring '26. A favorable diligence waypoint, not a commitment. - Permits: Final USFS Record of Decision (Jan 3, 2025) and USACE Section 404 (May 19, 2025) are secured. Active litigation (e.g., Nez Perce Tribe) presents real injunction risk. - Defense Support: Strong DoD/DPA backing (OTIA + Title III funds; additional $6.9M DoD in May). Antimony's geopolitical importance is a key narrative.
Impact of Trump Shift	- EXIM Posture: Now actively tooled for "Compete with China" & re-shoring under new leadership (Cruse, Jovanovic). Critical minerals fit the brief. - Permitting Climate: NEPA regs scrapped for streamlining. Net marginally positive for execution but injects legal uncertainty; injunction standards still a risk. Perpetua's permits pre-date this overhaul. - Public Debt Shift: LPO (climate-first) is pulling awards; EXIM (security-first) is still signing deals (e.g., MMIA). This shift benefits Perpetua.
Updated Underwriting	Approval odds moved up to ~70%. Size down-flex remains likely. EXIM Board will want: binding U.S. defense antimony offtake, tight E&S covenants, and credible capex/contingency plans.
Is This a Trend?	Yes. EXIM's SCRI/MMIA programs target supply-chain chokepoints. The Trump team is showcasing overseas minerals deals (e.g., Greenland REE). Perpetua would be a flagship domestic mining deal for EXIM.
Strategic Antimony Backdrop	U.S. has zero mine output; dominated by China/Russia. USGS 2025 flags antimony at high export-restriction risk. Recent China disruptions underscore supply fragility. This is EXIM's core justification; allows them to fund a gold project based on its antimony spine.
Key Takeaways	1. "Security beats climate in 2025 credit." Defense-critical narratives are the fastest path to sovereign debt. 2. "Permitting reform ≠ litigation immunity." Judicial risk migrates to other statutes (ESA, CWA, treaty rights); injunction risk persists. 3. "Public anchor, private optionality." EXIM anchor will attract streams/NSRs. Equity wins if gold runs; EXIM is first in line if not.
Catalysts to Watch (Next 3-9mo)	1. Binding antimony offtake with U.S. defense/industrial buyers. 2. Royalty/stream + financial-assurance package signed. 3. Litigation calendar: any preliminary-injunction filings and the judge's posture. 4. EXIM board seating: John Jovanovic's confirmation.
Positioning Strategy	- Equity: Trade around litigation and offtake headlines. Add on offtake/EXIM milestones, fade on injunction chatter. - Streams/Royalties: Negotiate for step-downs post debt-free, antimony price ratchets, and termination protections tied to permit litigation. - OEMs/Defense Primes: Pre-commit offtake to help de-risk EXIM and lock in supply.
Bottom Line	In Trump's 2025, Perpetua's odds improved as EXIM is a China-competition tool and NEPA headwinds are lighter, but court risk is the swing factor. Handicap: EXIM approval ~70%, ticket $1.5–$2.0B, heavy covenants, offtake as a hard condition precedent. Clearing litigation without an injunction and landing offtake drops WACC and fills the cap stack. Missing these reverts it to a capital-intensive gold story.

NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE