Red Sea Shipping Splits: Container Lines Return to Suez, VLCCs Reroute

Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd are restoring selected trans-Suez services while large crude tankers take longer routes. The same security environment is releasing effective container capacity and consuming tanker capacity.

Container and crude-tanker routing is diverging in the Red Sea.

Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd are sending more container services through Suez because the shorter Asia-Europe route cuts transit time and releases vessel capacity. Very Large Crude Carriers are moving in the other direction. S&P Global recorded no VLCC transit through Bab el-Mandeb after September 9, following 24 crossings in August and 63 in July.

Container lines are adding Suez exposure from a low base

Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd announced on September 14 that four additional Gemini services, AE5, AE11, AE12 and ME2, would switch from Cape of Good Hope routing to Suez. They join AE15 and AE19. Westbound AE11 and ME2 sailings were due to begin September 19 and AE5 on September 21; the first AE12 sailing had not yet been announced. Maersk says the changes remain conditional on regional stability.

The return remains small against the traffic lost since the Red Sea crisis began. Lloyd's List Intelligence counted 184 containership transits through Suez in August 2026, 66.5% below August 2023. Bab el-Mandeb recorded 273 containership transits, 59.5% below the comparable 2023 level. During September 7 to 13, Suez containership traffic fell to 46 transits from 55 the previous week.

More Suez loops shorten rotations. The same hull can complete more voyages over a given period, increasing effective fleet capacity without a new ship entering service.

VLCC avoidance is tightening crude-shipping capacity

The tanker market is absorbing the opposite effect.

Platts' Global VLCC Index for non-scrubber, non-eco ships reached $970,635 a day on September 16, up from $519,041 on September 1 and $283,635 on July 20. The increase since the start of September is about 87%.

Saudi-to-Asia crude flows show the vessel-day mechanism. S&P Global data put the share taking the Cape route at 58% in August, up from 5% in July. That routing can add at least three weeks relative to passage through Bab el-Mandeb. Every extra sailing day keeps the tanker occupied and unavailable for another cargo.

Broad Suez statistics can obscure the split. During September 7 to 13, Lloyd's List counted Suez tanker transits rising 4% week on week while containership transits fell 16.4%. Some crude movements can reach or leave the Mediterranean side of Suez without a VLCC traversing the southern Bab el-Mandeb route.

The result is unusual but already visible in freight economics. Selective container returns release vessel-days that Cape diversions had absorbed. VLCC avoidance consumes vessel-days and tightens tanker supply. The $970,635-a-day benchmark is the market price of that divergence.

Sources

Maersk. Lloyd's List Intelligence Red Sea Transit Monitor. S&P Global Commodity Insights.