Republicans led election-year October ad spending for the first time this decade, AdImpact says

Advertisers spent a record $4.01bn in an election-year October, up 61 percent on the last midterm October, AdImpact says. Republicans spent $1.90bn to Democrats' $1.76bn.

Political advertisers spent a record $4.01bn in October 2026, according to AdImpact's chart of election year Octobers posted on 2 November, the day before Election Day. That is a one-month figure, and the most for any election year October. The spending breakdown shows which advertisers led.

Comparing October with the last midterm

A midterm October and a presidential October are different contests, so the last midterm is the right comparison. October 2022 totalled $2.49bn, which makes October 2026 61 percent higher.

Republican advertisers account for most of that increase. Their October spending rose 93 percent, from $985m to $1.90bn. That is $915m of the $1.52bn added since 2022.

Democratic advertisers also spent far more, up 44 percent from $1.22bn to $1.76bn, an extra $540m. Republican spending grew faster from a smaller base, and that difference in growth rates reversed the ranking.

Who led, and when

In October 2022 Democrats outspent Republicans by $235m. In October 2026 Republicans led by $140m. AdImpact's own wording is that "for the first time this decade, Republicans outspent Democrats in the October preceding an on-year election".

The chart supports that statement. Democrats led by $560m in 2020 and by $510m in 2024. Republicans trailed in all three earlier Octobers on the chart, so 2026 is the first October in the series where they led.

What the 2024 comparison adds

October 2026 is also 25 percent above the $3.20bn of 2020. October 2024 was $3.83bn in a presidential year, so the 2026 total is only 4.7 percent higher.

Republicans added $490m between those two Octobers while Democrats spent $160m less. That changes the gap but says little about midterm demand.

Independent advertisers, the third category in the chart, spent $350m in October 2026. That is 8.7 percent of the total.

Their spending was below the $501m of 2024 and above the $290m of 2022. Independent is a separate AdImpact category, so it does not change the ranking of the Republican and Democratic categories.

What the chart does not show

The chart sorts advertisers into Democratic, Republican and Independent categories. It does not name donors or the media they bought, so it shows which side's advertisers placed the spending, not who paid for it or where it ran.

It also does not say whether October counts only aired advertising or includes advertising booked for later dates.

Where the money went before October

Spending is not evenly spread across channels. AdImpact's third quarter roundup put aired political advertising at $3bn, with broadcast taking 51 percent.

Connected TV took 23 percent and digital 15 percent. Those are shares of third quarter spending, not of October or of the cycle. They show where political money went before the final month.

Broadcast television was already running ahead of the previous presidential year by mid October. MediaPost reported $3.73bn of aired broadcast spending on Senate and House races through 12 October.

That was 30.4 percent more than at the same point in 2024. The total covers Congress only and stops well before month end. It is not the October figure.

Republicans spent more in the contested races covered by the broadcast data. TIME reported AdImpact data showing Republican broadcast spending of $233m against $121m for Democrats in nine tight Senate races.

Republicans also outspent Democrats by $14m in 21 House toss-up races. Those races and dates differ from the October chart, so they show Republican spending ahead in those contests, not how the $1.90bn divided.

The same TIME piece, citing AdImpact, put combined spending and reservations in the Texas Senate race above $500m. Only one other non-presidential race has passed that mark.

Ohio's Senate race stood at over $450m, with Republicans near $270m and Democrats above $180m.

What it means for broadcasters

For listed local television groups, the October record measures advertiser demand, rather than their revenue. AdImpact measures what advertisers spend, while Nexstar, Gray, Sinclair and Scripps report political revenue in fourth quarter results due in early 2027.

TheWrap noted that the windfall is temporary, and that local stations face the harder task of attracting advertisers after Election Day.

The cycle total and CTOL's view

Cycle totals use a different basis from the monthly figure. AdImpact put 2025 and 2026 at a record $11.21bn on 26 October, counting spending and reservations, just above the $11.20bn of the 2024 presidential cycle.

The Wall Street Journal put it at nearly $12bn on 1 November, citing AdImpact. TIME reported the cycle passing $10bn in the week of 12 October.

Reservations are booked advertising that has not yet aired, and new bookings or revisions can move the total. AdImpact's June forecast was $11.6bn for the cycle, with broadcast $5.6bn of it. The 2022 midterm cycle came in at $8.9bn, so a cycle near $11.6bn would be about 30 percent larger.

CTOL draws two separate findings from the October chart. Reported October political ad spending is 61 percent above the last midterm October. Republican advertisers grew faster than Democratic ones from a lower base, enough to lead for the first time in the chart's four elections.

The chart gives no basis for attributing the lead to any donor group, race or medium.

AdImpact's final cycle total is a separate check on size, against the June forecast of $11.6bn and the $8.9bn of the 2022 cycle. A final figure above $11.6bn would exceed AdImpact's June forecast on its spending-and-reservations measure. Set against the nearly $12bn cited on 1 November, on consistent definitions, it would show whether bookings were added or revised.

Also watch the station groups' fourth quarter political revenue, reported in early 2027. Political revenue at Nexstar, Gray, Sinclair and Scripps well above their fourth quarter of 2022 would indicate how much political revenue those groups recognised.