CTOL estimates Samsung still has 85 to 110 trillion won to pay for 2026
Samsung has declared a 30 trillion won dividend that is still unpaid and expects another 55 to 75 trillion won, subject to the board's January decision. On CTOL's sum, at least 85 trillion won and up to 110 trillion won is still to go out. Operating cash flow less equipment purchases was about 186 trillion won in nine months.
Samsung Electronics reported a record quarter on Thursday, and its shares fell 4.1 percent to close at 232,000 won, Yonhap reported. Revenue was 195.3 trillion won and operating profit 107.4 trillion won, which Reuters says was in line with Samsung's own estimate. Net profit of 75.1 trillion won came in below analyst forecasts. The device experience division, which sells phones and TVs, lost 0.8 trillion won.
The Samsung earnings presentation has finance income and expenses at a 4.7 trillion won gain in the second quarter and a 9.5 trillion won loss in the third. That is a 14.2 trillion won swing. The swing does not by itself explain the analysts' net profit miss. The figures are preliminary, pending external review.
Analysts offered different explanations for the share price fall. Sanjeev Rana of CLSA told Reuters the market expected an extra buyback or dividend, and Samsung deferred the decision to late January. Jing Jie Yu of Morningstar told Reuters the fall was likely due to the shortage outlook. It came across as marginally less bullish than SK hynix's. Lee Min-hee of BNK Investment & Securities said SK hynix went beyond expectations. He added that Samsung had not changed its earlier guidance.
How Samsung compares with SK hynix
SK hynix reported a day earlier, and its 3Q26 release gives context. Operating profit was 83.3 trillion won on revenue of 104.6 trillion won. They rose 38 and 32 percent on the quarter as SK hynix reports them. Samsung's group operating profit rose 20 percent. Its memory sales rose 16 percent to 140.7 trillion won, a figure that includes intersegment sales. The growth rates are not like for like.
On HBM, the companies use descriptions that are not like for like. Samsung's release says it "significantly scaled up sales of HBM4". SK hynix says HBM4 shipments "began in earnest" and expects HBM4 to pass HBM3E in shipments and revenue in the fourth quarter. Reuters reports Samsung says its 2027 HBM supply is sold out.
On supply, SK hynix says demand will exceed supply through 2030. Reuters reports it called its DRAM and HBM chips sold out through 2029. Samsung expects a tight market through 2028, Reuters reports. The two are describing related conditions in different terms.
How much is still unpaid
The payout can be checked against Samsung's published figures. The Samsung release says that 35 trillion won of an estimated 90 to 110 trillion won in 2026 shareholder returns is already planned or completed. It expects the remaining 55 to 75 trillion won to come from buybacks and cash dividends. The board finalises the rest in late January 2027. Reuters notes the total includes the 30 trillion won third quarter dividend, 4,601 won a share.
That dividend has not yet left the company. The cash flow statement shows only 2.5 trillion won of dividends paid in the quarter. The 197.6 trillion won of net cash does not reflect payment of the 30 trillion won. On CTOL's reading it is part of the 35 trillion won.
The amount still to be paid is therefore at least 30 trillion won plus 55 to 75 trillion won, or 85 to 105 trillion won. Samsung does not itemise the other 5 trillion won of the 35 trillion won. If it too is unpaid, the total reaches 110 trillion won. The sum is CTOL's, not a Samsung figure.
For comparison, consider the cash generated by operations. Samsung's operating cash flow was 244.0 trillion won over nine months. Purchases of property, plant and equipment were 58.1 trillion won. On the quarterly figures that leaves about 186 trillion won. The subtraction is CTOL's calculation, a flow subtotal and not cash available for distribution.
It ignores buybacks, dividends paid and other investing and financing. The remaining payout is about 46 to 59 percent of it, from the floor of 85 trillion won to the full 110 trillion won.
The quarters swing from 23.1 trillion won in the first to 91.0 trillion won in the second. The nine-month total smooths those swings, though it covers only part of the year.
The balance sheet offers another way to compare the amounts. Net cash is 197.6 trillion won, which is 214.8 trillion won of cash less 17.2 trillion won of debt. Holding everything else unchanged, subtracting 85 to 110 trillion won leaves 87.6 to 112.6 trillion won.
Spending and the January decision
Capital expenditure also rose sharply. It was 29.0 trillion won, up 12.2 trillion won from the second quarter.
The device solutions division spent 27.2 trillion won in the quarter, more than its 25.6 trillion won for the whole first half. Samsung separately reports nine month capital expenditure of 56.9 trillion won, a different measure from the 58.1 trillion won of cash equipment purchases above. The full year plan is about 84.4 trillion won. If Samsung finishes near it, the fourth quarter would be about 27.5 trillion won, 1.5 trillion won below the third.
Reuters reports that Samsung's chip capital spending rises sharply again next year. Samsung says the money goes to new fabs and infrastructure for AI and high performance computing demand.
Samsung said on its 29 October earnings call that HBM4 revenue more than tripled from the second quarter, according to Chosunbiz. HBM4 is the newest high bandwidth memory used in AI accelerators. Reuters reports Samsung has long term supply agreements with 10 major customers and is negotiating with 10 more.
CTOL estimates that the remaining 2026 payout is roughly half of this nine-month cash flow subtotal. The evidence is at least 85 trillion won to pay against about 186 trillion won of operating cash flow less equipment purchases. That is a scale comparison, not a statement of what funded or will fund the payout. It covers 2026 only.
Samsung's board meets in late January 2027 to set the rest of the payout. The announced 2026 total will show whether it stays inside the 90 to 110 trillion won range. Inside it, the cash still to go out is between 85 and 110 trillion won. The current figures do not show how the return will split between dividends and buybacks, or between common and preferred shares.