Tokyo’s ¥100 Million Reality: How the Dream of Owning a Home Slipped Away
Tokyo’s ¥100 Million Reality: How the Dream of Owning a Home Slipped Away
Home prices skyrocket 20% as foreign investors, tight supply, and stagnant wages divide Tokyo into two worlds
TOKYO — Scroll through Japan’s online forums and you’ll see a phrase popping up again and again: “Mou shomin wa kaenai.” Translation? “Ordinary folks can’t buy anymore.”
They’re talking about Tokyo’s housing market, where the unimaginable has become everyday news. In just the first half of 2025, the average new condo in Tokyo’s 23 wards hit ¥133.09 million . That’s up more than 20% from last year. Even more shocking—16% of used condo sales now top ¥100 million. A decade ago, that kind of price was only for the ultra-rich.
In neighborhoods like Minato and Chiyoda, over half of used condo sales break the ¥100 million mark. What used to be rare is now the new normal.
But this isn’t just a story about expensive real estate. It’s about a deeper shift—a city reshaped by foreign money, scarce land, and a central bank that’s kept borrowing cheap. The result? A split city: one Tokyo for the rich, another for everyone else.
The Numbers Don’t Lie
Everything’s rising—except people’s paychecks. Used condos jumped 12–13% year-over-year through mid-2025. Land prices climbed 7.7%, marking 13 straight years of increases. Residential land rose 5.6%, while commercial land surged 11.2%, the biggest leap in 30 years.
Rents are also climbing fast. They’re up 8.2% year-over-year, reaching ¥4,630 per square meter. Every district, from Shinjuku to Setagaya, has seen rent hikes.
The Bank of Japan’s October decision to keep interest rates at 0.5%—despite internal pressure to raise them—means real rates remain negative. Mortgages are still cheap for those who can afford one.
Analysts say we’re not at the end of the boom yet. “This isn’t the slowdown phase,” one market report noted. “We’re still figuring out where the ceiling is—just with fewer transactions.”
Foreign Money Floods In
Behind the price surge is a tidal wave of overseas investment. In 2024 and 2025, Tokyo ranked at the top of global real estate markets, drawing more than ¥10 trillion in deals. The weak yen—around ¥151 to the dollar—has made Tokyo look like a discount luxury store for Asian investors, especially from China and Southeast Asia.
Luxury property purchases by foreign buyers jumped 24% in early 2025. On X (formerly Twitter), investor groups tout “Tokyo Prime Assets Forums,” pitching the city as a once-in-a-generation opportunity. One popular post summed it up bluntly: “Central Tokyo is now out of reach for salarymen. The gap between property haves and have-nots is exploding.”
Domestic issues are piling on. Labor shortages and rising material costs have doubled construction expenses in just a few years. Steel alone is up 15%. Meanwhile, the supply of new condos in the city’s 23 wards dropped 11% in early 2025, with only about 3,000 new units coming to market. Prime areas are squeezed by zoning limits and land that simply can’t be redeveloped.
The Human Cost of Tokyo’s Boom
You can see the frustration in Japan’s online communities. On 5channel, users post listings of small 70-square-meter condos priced at ¥150 million—double what they cost just three years ago. Over on Reddit’s r/JapanFinance, people track how detached homes in the city’s 23 wards have risen 45% in five years. They say the last affordable spots inside the Yamanote Line have disappeared for most middle-class families.
The math paints an even bleaker picture. Tokyo’s price-to-income ratio now sits at 12 times average earnings, far above the global norm of eight. To make homes “affordable” again, prices would need to drop nearly 40%—a correction that few believe will happen.
So, what’s left for families? Many are downsizing, moving farther from the city, or giving up on ownership entirely. Suburbs like Saitama and Chiba are seeing their own mini-booms, with prices climbing 7–8% as Tokyo’s outpriced residents flee outward.
One analyst summed it up: “Even with slightly higher mortgage rates, limited supply and relentless demand keep prices strong in central Tokyo. People are being pushed to rent—or pushed out.”
New Towers, Old Problems
Relief might be on the horizon, but it’s moving at a snail’s pace. About 112 high-rise towers—roughly 48,000 units—are slated for completion across Tokyo from 2025 onward. It sounds promising, but here’s the catch: most of these units are in luxury zones, priced far above what average families can pay.
Politically, the response has been tepid. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, who took office in October 2025, has spoken about “rebalancing” real estate and possibly curbing foreign ownership. But so far, it’s just talk. No firm policies, no caps, no new taxes—nothing that changes the market’s trajectory.
The Bank of Japan, meanwhile, faces growing pressure to hike rates again. Two board members have already pushed for a bump to 0.75%. Governor Kazuo Ueda hinted that December or January could bring action—if wage data supports it. Even then, a small rate increase might cool activity, but it’s unlikely to dent prices in wealthy districts dominated by cash buyers.
A City Divided
Tokyo’s housing market isn’t a bubble waiting to pop. It’s a new reality. The top 10% of households are pocketing 80% of property gains, while everyone else is left behind. Analysts say that by 2030, families who bought homes in 2020 could see their assets balloon to ¥1.5 billion or more through property and stock gains. Those who didn’t buy? They’ll still be chasing rising rents with flat wages.
This shift runs deeper than economics—it’s reshaping society. Japan’s already low birth rate, just 1.2 nationally, could fall even further as young couples abandon hopes of owning family-sized homes. Some are leaving the city altogether, chasing affordability in the suburbs or smaller towns, while Tokyo’s center transforms into an enclave for the wealthy and corporate renters.
For now, that ¥100 million mark stands as more than a number. It’s a symbol of Tokyo’s transformation—a city where extraordinary prices have become ordinary, and an entire generation is being forced to redefine what “home” really means.