US job openings hit 7.52 million as the Fed weighs another rate rise
September job openings beat forecasts by about 423,000, and layoffs fell to a 16-month low. For a Fed that raised rates in September, this supports holding or raising rates rather than cutting them.
US job openings rose by 333,000 to 7.523 million in September, well above the 7.100 million economists expected, and layoffs fell to a 16 month low. For a Federal Reserve that raised rates in September, that points to a hold or another hike, not a cut.
What the Labor Department reported
The Bureau of Labor Statistics said on 3 November that it regards the change as little changed: the point estimate rose, but the release shows no clear underlying increase.
The openings rate rose to 4.5% from 4.3%. August was revised up by 111,000, so September is measured from a higher base.
Hires rose by 131,000 to 5.402 million. Quits reached 3.365 million, their highest level in the chart's 16 months. Layoffs and discharges fell by 127,000 to 1.641 million, a rate of 1.0%.
These signals measure unfilled positions, job moves and dismissals. None alone establishes a hiring boom.
How the result compared with forecasts
Economists polled by Reuters forecast 7.100 million openings. The 7.523 million result beat that by about 423,000. That forecast miss differs from the 333,000 monthly rise.
The Reuters report quoted economists describing restrained hiring and low layoffs. They attributed low dismissals to strong profits and hiring hesitation to the US and Israeli war with Iran.
A Richmond Fed study recorded a JOLTS response rate of 58% in January 2020 and 33% in September 2024. That warrants caution, but it does not give the 2026 rate.
Where the gain came from
The chart uses 16 months of levels from the BLS series on FRED. September quits are the highest in that period and layoffs the lowest. Openings are the highest since May.
Job openings rose to 7.523 million in September 2026, the highest since May, while hires rose to 5.402 million, quits to 3.365 million and layoffs fell to 1.641 million.
View data
| Month | Job openings | Hires | Quits | Layoffs and discharges |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-01 | 7.204 | 5.327 | 3.254 | 1.843 |
| 2025-07-01 | 7.089 | 5.225 | 3.132 | 1.772 |
| 2025-08-01 | 6.919 | 5.145 | 3.095 | 1.832 |
| 2025-09-01 | 7.169 | 5.244 | 2.99 | 1.816 |
| 2025-10-01 | 7.17 | 5.18 | 2.98 | 1.891 |
| 2025-11-01 | 6.846 | 5.019 | 3.119 | 1.66 |
| 2025-12-01 | 6.55 | 5.272 | 3.225 | 1.666 |
| 2026-01-01 | 7.24 | 5.347 | 3.131 | 1.66 |
| 2026-02-01 | 6.922 | 4.899 | 3.046 | 1.714 |
| 2026-03-01 | 6.887 | 5.535 | 3.16 | 1.884 |
| 2026-04-01 | 7.585 | 5.215 | 3.043 | 1.667 |
| 2026-05-01 | 7.537 | 5.252 | 3.153 | 1.761 |
| 2026-06-01 | 7.182 | 5.332 | 3.213 | 1.785 |
| 2026-07-01 | 7.335 | 5.146 | 3.089 | 1.702 |
| 2026-08-01 | 7.19 | 5.271 | 3.044 | 1.768 |
| 2026-09-01 | 7.523 | 5.402 | 3.365 | 1.641 |
State and local government outside education added 104,000 openings, about a third of the national rise. The West added 244,000. These show the same national change by industry and by geography, so they cannot be added together.
Accommodation and food services accounted for 197,000 of the 321,000 national increase in quits, about 61%.
The movements are concentrated, which is a reason to seek broader confirmation, not proof that other sectors are weak.
Jobs and wages do not confirm a boom
The September jobs report showed payrolls up only 29,000, against a 45,000 monthly average over the prior year. July and August were revised down by 60,000 combined. Unemployment held at 4.2%.
Inside JOLTS, hires minus total separations comes to 83,000. The two surveys use different samples and definitions, so the gap with payrolls is not hidden job creation.
The employment cost index shows private wages up 3.1% over the year to September. Its inflation adjusted measure fell 0.6%.
Vacancies are not hires, and low layoffs can coexist with weak hiring.
Why the Fed is considering another rate rise
On 16 September the Federal Reserve raised its target range by a quarter point to 3.75% to 4.00%. The vote was 12 to 0.
On 28 October the committee held the range in a 10 to 2 vote. Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack dissented, preferring another quarter point increase.
On 12 October, Hammack described inflation pressures as "relatively broad-based rather than concentrated in one component". She said "convincing signs of deterioration" in labour conditions would change the policy path.
A rate monitor based on CME futures prices put the chance of a December hike at 77.8% at 12:15 pm on 3 November, versus 73.8% a day earlier. That is market pricing, not Fed guidance, and it cannot be attributed to JOLTS from these observations.
Low layoffs weaken an immediate deterioration argument; weak payrolls and uncertain openings do not prove overheating. The open question is whether incoming prices and labour data persuade the majority to join the dissenters.
Indeed: quiet is not the same as healthy
Indeed's Hiring Lab, in its reading of the report, says quiet is not the same as healthy. It notes the 2.1% quits rate is the first above 2% since June 2025.
Indeed adds that hiring is at its slowest pace since 2013 and quitting at its slowest since 2015. Its postings recently showed a year on year gain for the first time in over four years.
A 16 month high in quits does not overturn the longer period of subdued job mobility. Quits alone do not measure worker bargaining power.
Openings spikes have usually faded
CTOL tested the full FRED openings series back to 2000 and found 36 monthly rises of more than 300,000. In 27, openings were lower in at least one of the next two months.
Only 4 of the 36 gave back the entire increase within two months. Outside 2020 to 2022, all 20 spikes had a lower reading within that window. In early 2021, openings kept rising for months.
The test uses revised values and overlapping cases. It shows a tendency toward some pullback, not the amount lost, and cannot estimate the odds for the next initial print.
The historical test argues against projecting continued growth from an isolated rise.
The likely rate path
There were 7.523 million openings for 7.1 million unemployed people, about one each. Unemployment has stayed between 4.1% and 4.3% since March. Neither comparison proves balance because openings are not hires.
CTOL reads JOLTS as neutral for the next decision, with a mildly hawkish edge if low layoffs persist. If vacancies ease, inflation bears more of the case for a hike, though hiring and wages still matter.
The October statement says job gains have kept pace with the workforce; it sets no numerical vacancy trigger.
What could happen next
The following paths cover the next three months, ranked by likelihood without numerical probabilities. October JOLTS on 1 December is the first vacancy test.
Most likely, September's gain partly fades while layoffs stay low, provided hiring remains restrained and quits do not broadly accelerate. Survey uncertainty and the 27 of 36 historical pattern favour this path.
It is also plausible that openings stay above 7.5 million and quits rise beyond 3.365 million, with layoffs low. This needs broader demand than observed, and the 29,000 payroll gain weighs against it. The 9 December decision then tests the relevance of the two hike dissents.
Less likely, openings fall while layoffs rise materially from 1.641 million and hiring stays weak. The 29,000 payroll gain makes this conceivable, but low layoffs weigh against it.
What would prove CTOL's prediction wrong?
CTOL predicts that the first October openings estimate, due from the BLS on 1 December 2026, will be 7.4 million or below. CTOL's confidence is low. CTOL expects a partial reversal of September's 333,000 rise. The historical test did not estimate this threshold.
The prediction is wrong if the initial estimate exceeds 7.4 million.
The BLS calendar puts October jobs on 6 November and consumer prices on 10 November.