Security Giant Verisure Plans €20 Billion Stockholm IPO to Cut Debt and Test European Market
Verisure's €20 Billion Stockholm IPO Gambit Tests Europe's Capital Market Appetite
STOCKHOLM — In a high-stakes move that could reshape Europe's dormant IPO landscape, security giant Verisure is preparing to list on the Stockholm Stock Exchange in what would be the continent's largest public offering in three years. The €3.5-4 billion ($3.5-4 billion) raise, primarily through new shares, comes as the company seeks to shed a significant portion of its €7.6 billion debt burden while providing its private equity backer, Hellman & Friedman, a partial exit route.
Breaking the European IPO Drought
The frost over European public markets may finally be thawing. Verisure's ambitious listing, potentially valuing the company at more than €20 billion including debt, would mark the first multi-billion-euro private equity-backed tech-services float Europe has seen since 2022.
"This is a watershed moment," remarks a senior European investment banker involved in recent listings. "Everyone is watching this deal. If Verisure succeeds, we'll see a flood of similar offerings that have been waiting in the wings. If it falters, many firms will pivot toward U.S. listings or delay altogether."
The Swiss-headquartered security services provider operates across 17 countries with more than 5.5 million customers in Europe and Latin America. Its subscription-based model, focused on monitored alarms and smart security devices, generated €3.41 billion in revenue last year, growing over 10%, with adjusted EBITDA reaching €1.5 billion.
Table: Verisure Business Model Canvas and Financial Overview
| Component | Details |
|---|---|
| Key Partners | Hardware suppliers, emergency services, field installers, tech partners, marketing agencies |
| Key Activities | R&D in security systems, 24/7 monitoring, professional installation, customer support, AI development, marketing |
| Value Propositions | 24/7 monitored security, tailored system design, rapid response (ZeroVision), high retention, app-based control |
| Customer Relationships | Subscription-based service, onboarding support, proactive maintenance, loyalty programs, digital engagement |
| Channels | Direct sales, website, call centers, mobile app, authorized service providers |
| Customer Segments | Homeowners, renters, small business owners, some commercial clients across 17 countries in Europe and Latin America |
| Key Resources | Proprietary technology, 26,000+ staff, monitoring centers, data infrastructure, expert service teams |
| Cost Structure | Personnel, R&D, hardware procurement, marketing, customer acquisition, infrastructure |
| Revenue Streams | Monthly subscriptions, installation costs, equipment upsells (smart locks, cameras), maintenance services |
| Top Products & Services | ZeroVision fog deterrent, smart sensors, smoke/CO detectors, Verisure Guardian, LockGuard smart locks, professional monitoring |
| 2024 Revenue | €3,408 million |
| Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) | €3,068 million |
| Adjusted EBIT | €819 million |
| Net Profit (Q1 2025) | €41 million |
| Customer Base | 5.6 million subscribers |
| YoY Revenue Growth | +10.3% |
| YoY EBIT Growth | +18% |
Stockholm's Strategic Appeal
Stockholm's selection as the listing venue rather than London or New York underscores a shift toward regional exchanges with historical connections and supportive investment communities. Verisure previously traded in Sweden under the Securitas Direct brand, giving it name recognition among Nordic institutional investors.
The company's return to public markets comes amid a broader trend of European private equity-backed firms assessing exit options after years of preparation. Similar moves are expected from software provider Visma (valued at €19+ billion), financial services firm ISS Stoxx, and others in a potential pipeline that could revitalize European capital markets—if Verisure's reception proves positive.
Balancing High Valuation Against Sector Realities
At the indicative valuation of €20+ billion, representing approximately 13× 2024 EBITDA, Verisure faces the challenge of convincing public investors that its "IoT-plus-monitoring" subscription model deserves a substantial premium compared to listed security peers like ADT and Prosegur, which trade at 5-7× EV/EBITDA multiples.
The company's bull case rests on four pillars: strong recurring revenue (over 80% of sales with churn below 9%), structural tailwinds from rising crime concerns and insurance requirements, demonstrated pricing power (6% annual increases with minimal customer loss), and operational excellence built on a 30-year data lake and 10,000-strong in-house technician workforce.
Yet skeptics point to continuing leverage drag—even post-IPO, interest will consume over 30% of projected 2025 EBITDA—and growing competition from DIY security providers like Amazon's Ring and SimpliSafe, which offer similar services at 50-60% lower monthly costs.
The Capital Structure Gambit
The IPO's structure offers clues about management's priorities and investor sentiment. While over 80% of proceeds will reduce leverage from approximately 5.1× to around 3.5× EBITDA, this still leaves Verisure more highly geared than sector norms.
"The sizeable primary raise rather than a pure cash-out is positive," notes a London-based equity analyst specializing in subscription businesses. "But the post-IPO capital structure leaves little room for execution missteps. Any growth disappointment will hit the equity value disproportionately given the remaining debt load."
Post-offering, Hellman & Friedman will maintain control with a majority stake, with public investors holding 25-30% of shares. This governance structure adds another layer of consideration for institutional investors weighing participation.
What Smart Money Is Watching
Professional investors are focusing on five key metrics that will determine Verisure's post-IPO trajectory:
- Cohort churn analysis – particularly comparing COVID-era installations against 2023-25 customer behavior
- Latin American unit economics – where service costs and currency risks run higher while management projects ambitious growth
- Hardware innovation control – assessing dependency on camera and system-on-chip vendors
- Pricing elasticity in core markets – Spain and France contribute 65% of EBITDA but may face resistance to further increases
- Post-IPO capital allocation priorities – whether management will prioritize debt reduction or pursue acquisitions
Investment Outlook: Risk-Reward Calculation
Verisure's valuation scenarios illustrate the stakes. Under base-case assumptions (10% growth), a 12× multiple yields a €19.8 billion enterprise value and €12.2 billion equity value. Optimistic projections with 12% growth and margin improvement could push equity value to €16.5 billion, representing 35% upside. However, a macroeconomic hiccup limiting growth to 7% could compress multiples and drive a 33% equity value decline.
"At the midpoint valuation, Verisure commands a 2.1× multiple premium to established security firms while growing only 2.5 percentage points faster," observes a portfolio manager at a European asset management firm. "The bull case needs to materialize to justify this premium long-term."
Market Signaling Beyond the Headline Deal
The timing and reception of Verisure's offering carry broader implications. Nordic ECM desks express optimism following Asker Healthcare's successful debut earlier this year, but market volatility surrounding September rate-cut expectations remains elevated.
If subscription books build strongly—particularly in the upper half of the range above €3.8 billion—industry observers expect a cascade of filings from other large private equity-backed firms within six weeks. Conversely, pricing below 11× EBITDA might accelerate the trend of European champions seeking U.S. listings instead.
The Bottom Line for Investors
For institutional investors, the strategic approach appears calibrated: consider a modest allocation at the IPO if forward EV/EBITDA doesn't exceed 12× and 2025 leverage guidance stays below 3.5×, while waiting for concrete operational data before making Verisure a core holding.
The deal will likely price successfully but requires flawless execution and cornerstone investor support to avoid post-listing weakness. Unless management demonstrates ability to translate premium services into premium cash flow, the stock could drift toward high-single-digit multiples within 18 months—suggesting Verisure represents an asymmetric trading opportunity rather than a buy-and-hold investment at the offering price.
This article represents analysis based on current market information and established economic indicators. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Readers should consult financial advisors for personalized investment guidance.