Alphabet's Other Bets will pass its 2025 loss if Q4 losses exceed $1.57 billion

Alphabet's Other Bets lost $5.95 billion in the first nine months of 2026. A fourth quarter loss above $1.57 billion takes the year past 2025's $7.52 billion.

Alphabet's Other Bets segment lost $2,048 million more in the first nine months of 2026 than a year earlier, a 52.5 percent rise on flat revenue.

The nine month GAAP loss to 30 September 2026 was $5,946 million, already 79 percent of the $7,515 million for all of 2025.

Why the hurdle is low

On CTOL's arithmetic, a fourth quarter loss above $1,569 million makes 2026 the larger year. The 2025 total includes a $2.1 billion Waymo compensation charge booked in its fourth quarter. That threshold is below the loss in every quarter of 2026 so far. The smallest was the second quarter at $1,799 million.

The third quarter loss of $2,047 million came in Alphabet's 28 October earnings release and the 10-Q filed on 29 October. To stay under the hurdle, the fourth quarter loss would have to fall 23 percent from the third. That is arithmetic, not a forecast.

The $16 billion equity round that Waymo announced on 2 February 2026 and the October loan are separate from the Other Bets operating loss. Neither measures the segment's expenses.

On 8 October, after the quarter ended, Waymo closed a $5 billion secured term loan that it calls its first debt financing. The loan was not outstanding at 30 September.

Where the loss is rising

The segment's loss was higher in every quarter of 2026 than a year earlier. Year on year, the loss rose $874 million in the first quarter, $553 million in the second and $621 million in the third.

That sums to $2,048 million, or 52.5 percent on the $3,898 million lost in the first nine months of 2025.

Revenue was essentially flat, down $2 million to $1,165 million. The wider loss therefore reflects about $2,046 million of added net operating costs.

In the third quarter the segment lost 5.5 times its $372 million of revenue.

Alphabet gives a brief explanation. The 10-Q says the third quarter rise was "primarily driven by an increase in employee compensation expenses" and other factors, "none of which were individually significant". For nine months it adds third party services fees.

Other Bets is a combination of operating segments that are not individually material, and the filing reports no standalone Waymo revenue or loss. The 10-K names Waymo and Isomorphic Labs inside it. GFiber is also part of the segment.

What the full year comparison includes

The full year 2025 figure includes a charge outside the nine month comparison. Subtracting nine months from the FY2025 10-K total puts the fourth quarter 2025 loss at $3,617 million. The 10-K says 2025 included a $2.1 billion employee compensation charge for Waymo, recognised in the fourth quarter "based on estimated stock valuation".

Take that charge out of the quarter's $3,617 million loss and $1,517 million remains. That is a CTOL sensitivity, not a company figure or an estimate of recurring losses. The charge fell outside the first three quarters, so it plays no part in the $2.0 billion nine month increase.

How big the segment is

Measured by third quarter revenue and operating income, the segment is small against the group. Its third quarter loss equals 5.0 percent of Alphabet's $40,576 million operating income. Its revenue is 0.29 percent of the group's $127,577 million.

Google Services earned $39,157 million and Google Cloud $11,121 million.

Other Bets lost $2,047 million, and the corporate level lost $7,655 million, which the 10-Q says mainly reflects shared AI research and development. Those four lines sum to $40,576 million.

Waymo's funding

Waymo's equity funding does not map onto the segment's losses. Alphabet's 10-K says the $16.0 billion round was "the significant majority of which was funded by Alphabet". Dragoneer, DST Global and Sequoia led the outside money.

Noncontrolling interests, the equity outside holders own in consolidated subsidiaries, rose from $3.4 billion at the end of 2025 to $6.9 billion at 30 September. The filing does not name Waymo as the source, so the change does not measure outside money in Waymo.

The new loan and ride growth

Waymo's debt announcement calls it "our first debt financing", with PIMCO, Blackstone and Sixth Street as lead syndicated lenders.

The 10-Q says the $5.0 billion loan matures in October 2032 and bears interest at Term SOFR plus 5.25 percent. It is secured by certain assets and subsidiaries of Waymo, and Alphabet does not guarantee it.

On CTOL's arithmetic, $5 billion outstanding for a full year at the 5.25 point spread adds $262.5 million of interest. That is the spread alone, with Term SOFR on top. Waymo's chief financial officer called the loan an "important step in our evolution into a scaling commercial enterprise".

Waymo's ride growth shows rising commercial activity. In February it reported more than 400,000 rides a week across six US metropolitan areas. Rides in 2025 reached 15 million, more than triple the year before.

In December it said it was on a path to 1 million rides a week by the end of 2026. Alphabet reports no Waymo revenue, so these counts do not set against the segment's $372 million.

What changes next

GFiber may also change the segment. The 10-Q classes its property and equipment of $7.1 billion as held for sale, with closing expected in late 2026.

On closing Alphabet expects $1.5 billion in cash, a $2.0 billion note receivable and a 49.99 percent equity interest. GFiber stays in Other Bets until the sale closes. If it closes in late 2026 as expected, the fourth quarter includes its results to that date and later comparisons reflect a changed segment.

CTOL's view is that the hurdle is low against the 2026 record. The three 2026 quarters ranged from $1,799 million to $2,100 million, and nine month revenue was flat.

A fourth quarter loss above $1,569 million takes 2026 above 2025's $7,515 million. A loss of exactly $1,569 million leaves the years level. The 10-Q does not tie the rise to Waymo.

Alphabet's fourth quarter release and FY2026 10-K settle it. Last year's 10-K came on 5 February.

If the fourth quarter loss reaches the second quarter's $1,799 million, the year totals $7,745 million, 3 percent above 2025. That quarter would be about half the $3,617 million of the fourth quarter 2025, which held the charge, so a larger year would not mean a worsening quarter.

That total would confirm the segment figure only. It would not show how much belongs to Waymo, how much is valuation linked pay, or what GFiber contributed before it left.