Anthropic's fixed compute bill jumps from $55bn to $266bn. Only SpaceXAI allows exit on notice
Anthropic's fixed compute bill jumps from $55bn to $266bn. Only SpaceXAI allows exit on notice
The S-1 adds $245bn of minimum payments signed since 30 June. Nvidia, AMD and Broadcom rose 2.6% to 3.1% intraday on Monday. Micron and Intel rose more, though neither has an S-1 contract.
Anthropic can leave only one of its big compute contracts on notice, SpaceXAI's, and not before early 2027. About two thirds of the $657 billion of named contracts are fixed floors or leases that Anthropic pays whatever demand does.
Anthropic's fixed purchase commitments reached about $265.6 billion at 30 June, up from $54.6 billion at the end of December. That is 4.9 times the December figure.
The S-1 adds about $245 billion of minimum payments in agreements signed or amended since then. Reuters counts at least $518 billion over a decade.
The S-1 shows how hard each named contract is to leave. The clouds, Broadcom and the neoclouds bind Anthropic whatever demand does. Chip vendors fund a minority of the bill. Broadcom holders carry the largest single exposure.
Which contracts can be cancelled
Microsoft, Google and Amazon are the hardest to leave. Anthropic must spend at least $44.9 billion with Microsoft to May 2033, "regardless of actual usage".
It must spend about $114.5 billion with Google to July 2033 and $110.0 billion with Amazon to April 2036. Google and Amazon charge any shortfall as a true up, so Anthropic pays the difference.
Microsoft is a fixed minimum with exits only for its uncured breach or undelivered tranches. Together the three come to $269.4 billion.
Broadcom is a lease, not a cloud bill. Anthropic rents equipment under five year leases with rent of about $161.2 billion, excluding interest. The leases are finance leases and cannot be cancelled.
Anthropic guarantees the leases, the equipment is the security, and cash sits in a restricted account.
AMD's hardware agreement is non cancelable by Anthropic except for AMD's uncured breach. The S-1 expects spend above $20.0 billion if the initial capacity is bought.
Nscale and Lambda come next. Nscale is up to about $44.6 billion to 2033 and Lambda about $41.3 billion to 2034.
Fees accrue as capacity is delivered and accepted. Both are non cancelable except in limited cases, such as failed delivery or an uncured breach by the vendor.
SpaceXAI is up to $120.5 billion over terms into 2029. It is the one contract either side can end on notice.
The named contracts sum to $657.0 billion. That mixes floors, ceilings and expected spend, so it is not a commitment total. It still allows a comparison of their exit terms.
Fixed floors and leases are $430.6 billion of it, about two thirds. Most of the rest binds as capacity is delivered, apart from SpaceXAI.
Google's further $125 to $150 billion of TPU estimate sits outside the table.
SpaceXAI runs at about $3.1 billion a month once all capacity is delivered, which Anthropic expects in December 2026. The non cancelable periods end in January and March 2027.
After that either party may cancel on 90 days' written notice. Ninety days at the full rate is about $9.3 billion.
How suppliers fund the bill
Vendors fund a minority, about $82 billion of the $657 billion, or 12%. Anthropic may issue up to $42.0 billion of convertible notes to Broadcom or, with Anthropic's consent, a financing partner.
The notes can only pay quarterly rent under a lease arrangement whose rent is $125.2 billion. The notes cover 33.5% of that lease.
The notes pay 9.00% in kind. The rate rises to 13.00%, with a cheaper conversion price, if revenue conditions are missed.
Issuance depends on revenue growth, compliance with the minimum liquidity requirement and performance under the leases.
That liquidity requirement sits in the amended credit facility. In September, Anthropic raised the revolver from $3.3 billion to $15.0 billion.
It also lifted the covenant from $0.5 billion to $5.0 billion. The Broadcom note facility lapses if the conditions are not met for a sustained period.
AMD has committed to buy up to $5.0 billion of Anthropic Class N stock as GPU deliveries land. Against more than $20 billion of hardware, that recycles 25% of the sale into Anthropic equity.
Amazon's $15.0 billion note facility settles in stock at compute milestones. Its money arrives in $5.0 billion steps as each milestone is met, and can be drawn for up to 30 months after the offering.
Google's $20.0 billion facility is undrawn. Neither it nor Amazon's is expected to be used before the IPO.
Google can cut its facility by up to $10.0 billion by buying shares in the IPO placement at the offer price. That is the one live signal of IPO demand from a supplier.
Amazon has already put $5.0 billion into the Series H round. Google put in $10.0 billion, which cut its facility to $20.0 billion.
Supplier and financing risks
The clouds are suppliers, investors, sales channels and rivals at once. Their marketplaces carried 48% of first half revenue.
Broadcom is described as "simultaneously a supplier and lessor". The S-1 warns each cloud "may prioritize their own compute needs".
Lenders to Nscale and Lambda carry delivery risk. Nscale must use best efforts to obtain qualifying financing for its GPUs and data centres.
Either side can end Lambda's $34.9 billion August agreement if Lambda does not secure the facility lease in time. A lender there backs a contract from a customer with a $5.0 billion liquidity covenant.
How chip stocks traded
Chip stocks did not rank by exposure. In intraday trading on Monday at about 1:20 PM ET, Nvidia was up 2.57%, AMD 3.11% and Broadcom 2.94%.
Micron rose 4.21% and Intel 5.85%, and neither has a contract in the S-1.
Meta's $35 billion equity offering named all three as possible buyers of up to $5.0 billion the same morning.
Broadcom has the largest dollar link to the filing, with $161 billion of rent from one customer.
Nvidia's exposure arrives through Microsoft, SpaceXAI, Nscale and Lambda. Each of those four carries its own financing risk.
Cash, growth and the next exit dates
Growth is what services the bill. Reuters reported third quarter revenue of $16.8 billion, up from $11.6 billion in the second.
Anthropic held $131.7 billion of cash and short term investments at 30 June, against the $265.6 billion of fixed commitments. That covers about half.
The rest depends on growth. The $15.0 billion revolver and the $5.0 billion liquidity covenant sit behind it.
SpaceXAI's first non cancelable period ends in January 2027 and the second in March 2027. Anthropic says demand has exceeded its compute and that spot capacity costs more.
If no notice follows by the March 2027 date, the full $3.1 billion a month, about $37 billion a year, stays fixed through 2029.