TikTok Plans Split into U.S. and Global Apps as June 19 Ban Deadline Looms

TikTok's Critical Crossroads: Inside the High-Stakes Split to Survive in America

In the gleaming glass towers of ByteDance's corporate offices, engineers are working against the clock on what insiders have dubbed "Project Gemini" — an unprecedented technological bifurcation that could determine the fate of one of the world's most influential social media platforms in the United States.

Internal documents obtained exclusively by this publication from an anonymous Tiktok employee reveal that TikTok plans to split into two separate applications: one designed specifically for the American market and another for international users. This dramatic restructuring comes as the company races to meet a June 19 deadline that could see the wildly popular app go dark for 170 million U.S. users.

"It has been confirmed internally at TikTok about a plan to split TikTok into two apps," states an email from the TikTok U.S. employee. "The U.S. app would be owned by a joint venture but would still rely on ByteDance for various data and services."

The Art of the Digital Divorce

The proposed split would create a complex ownership structure in which American investors would hold a 55% majority stake in the U.S. version of TikTok, with ByteDance retaining a 45% minority position. This arrangement would allow ByteDance to continue providing technological services under strict regulatory oversight while addressing national security concerns that have plagued the company for years.

"The joint venture would likely see a consortium of U.S. investors take a majority stake, with ByteDance as a minority partner providing technology and services," the internal communication continues. "All U.S. user data would be managed locally and independently."

Sources familiar with the negotiations suggest that the U.S. TikTok entity could be valued between $45-50 billion — approximately nine times its 2024 U.S. revenue of $10 billion. Meanwhile, the international version would be prohibited from operating within American borders.

The split represents a high-wire act for ByteDance, attempting to preserve its valuable American audience while navigating increasingly hostile geopolitical tensions between Washington and Beijing.

Dancing on the Edge of a Ban

The urgency behind Project Gemini stems from the Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act, which effectively banned TikTok in the United States as of January 19, 2025. Only a series of executive orders from President Trump has kept the app functioning, with the latest extension pushing the deadline to June 19.

"This is the endgame of a regulatory chess match that's been playing out for years," said a technology policy analyst who requested anonymity due to the sensitivity of ongoing negotiations. "ByteDance has essentially been told: divest or disappear from the American market."

The legal battle has reached the highest levels of the American judiciary, with the Supreme Court upholding the constitutionality of the ban despite TikTok's arguments that it violates First Amendment protections. This judicial defeat has left divestiture as the only viable path forward.

Technological Divorce: The Algorithm Dilemma

Perhaps the most challenging aspect of the split involves TikTok's proprietary recommendation algorithm — widely considered the crown jewel of the platform and a key factor in its explosive global growth.

Multiple sources confirm that TikTok has been working since late 2024 to create a separate recommendation algorithm and source code base for its U.S. operations. This process, described by one engineer as "like performing heart surgery while the patient is running a marathon," could take more than a year to complete.

The technical complexity is further complicated by Chinese export control laws, which restrict the transfer of certain advanced technologies to foreign entities. Analysts suggest that any agreement involving the full transfer of TikTok's algorithm would likely face significant delays from China's Ministry of Commerce .

"The base case scenario involves ByteDance supplying code via a service agreement without an actual algorithm handover," noted a digital media consultant with knowledge of similar cross-border technology arrangements. "It's a compromise that might satisfy American regulators without triggering Chinese export controls."

Wall Street's Calculated Gamble

As the June 19 deadline approaches, financial markets are calculating winners and losers across the digital landscape. Meta Platforms, TikTok's chief competitor, could see an incremental $1.5-2 billion in second-half 2025 advertising revenue if TikTok is banned outright. Snapchat might experience user growth in a ban scenario but faces challenges if the joint venture proceeds.

Oracle, which has positioned itself as a technological partner through its "Project Texas" infrastructure services, stands to benefit in almost any scenario except an outright ban. The company currently generates an estimated $800-900 million in annual recurring revenue from its TikTok relationship.

A dark horse in the negotiations is AppLovin, a mobile technology company that some analysts view as a potential bidder with significant synergies through its machine-learning advertising stack.

"The market has been already pricing in a 60% probability of the joint venture closing in the second half of 2025," explained a technology sector portfolio manager at a major hedge fund. "Due to the fickle nature of the negotiating parties, there's still a 25% chance of an outright ban and perhaps a 15% chance of a full U.S. buyout including the algorithm, which would value the entity even higher — potentially $60-70 billion."

Global Ripple Effects

The pressure on TikTok extends beyond American borders. European Union regulators have already levied significant fines against the company for data privacy violations, and ongoing Digital Services Act investigations could force a similar restructuring in European markets.

"What happens in the U.S. will create a template that other Western democracies are likely to follow," said a former technology regulator now working in the private sector. "Canada and the EU are watching closely, and TikTok knows that this isn't just about preserving one market — it's about establishing a sustainable model for operating in democracies worldwide."

This global regulatory scrutiny places additional constraints on ByteDance's negotiating position and may cap the valuation multiple for any new TikTok entity that emerges from the process.

The Countdown Begins

As the clock ticks toward June 19, several critical milestones will determine TikTok's fate. Industry observers anticipate potential leaks of a binding letter of intent around June 10, followed by the hard deadline on June 19 when the White House is expected to issue a press release around 6 p.m. Eastern Time.

Senate oversight hearings scheduled for late July present additional sentiment risk, while August and September will likely be consumed by regulatory reviews from both American and Chinese authorities.

Significant challenges remain. TikTok has experienced an exodus of U.S. executives, complicating the optics for the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States . China could retaliate by targeting American companies operating within its borders, particularly game studios dependent on Chinese licensing approvals.

Creator lawsuits invoking First Amendment protections could resurface if a ban proceeds, though analysts place the odds of a temporary restraining order at approximately 30% and the likelihood of a permanent injunction below 10% following the Supreme Court's ruling.

Investment Horizons Beyond the Split

For investors navigating this complex landscape, the coming weeks offer both risk and opportunity. Market analysts suggest several potential approaches for those looking to capitalize on the TikTok situation.

A popular strategy involves going long Meta Platforms while shorting Snap, a position that could benefit in most scenarios except the unlikely full U.S. buyout. More speculative plays include options on Oracle to capture potential upside from its infrastructure role, or positioning in AppLovin to benefit from acquisition speculation.

For those with access to private markets, secondary shares in ByteDance itself trading below twice sales could represent value if any U.S. resolution reduces global risk perceptions around the company.

"The headlines will be chaotic around June 19, but there's asymmetric risk-reward in positioning for the most likely outcome — the joint venture structure," suggested a technology investment strategist. "The key is maintaining flexibility while the details get hammered out."

As ByteDance navigates this unprecedented technological and corporate restructuring, the outcome will not only determine TikTok's future in America but may establish new precedents for how global technology platforms operate in an increasingly fragmented digital world.

Note to readers: This analysis is based on current market information and should not be considered investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a qualified financial advisor for personalized guidance. We sent a request to TikTok for official verification of the information we collected, but there has been no response so far.