Walmart adds Dunkin' delivery as Amazon forecasts 88.7% own-network share
Key takeaways
- Walmart says Dunkin' delivery will begin through 150 in-store tenant locations and is planned to reach most of roughly 10,000 other U.S. locations.
- A reported Amazon planning document projects 86.3% of U.S. packages in its network in 2027, 87.4% in 2028 and 88.7% in 2029. Amazon says the figures are preliminary.
- Amazon's Q2 2026 shipping costs rose to $27.9 billion, while UPS says its largest customer's volume has fallen more than 50% from 2024 levels.
- The retailers are gaining control of checkout and route decisions; current filings do not prove material displacement of DoorDash, Uber Eats or outside carriers.
Walmart announced on September 3 that Dunkin' orders will first be offered through 150 Walmart in-store tenant locations. Walmart plans to extend the service to the majority of roughly 10,000 Dunkin' locations outside Walmart stores, with ordering through Walmart.com and the Walmart app.
A secondary report on a Business Insider-reviewed internal Amazon document put Amazon's own-network allocation at 86.3% of U.S. packages in 2027, 87.4% in 2028 and 88.7% in 2029. Amazon reportedly called the projections preliminary and subject to significant revision. “Own network” includes contracted capacity such as Delivery Service Partners; it does not mean Amazon employees deliver every parcel.
The two retailers are internalizing different deliveries
These are different measures and are not additive: Walmart's figure is a location plan, while Amazon's is a package-allocation forecast.
Walmart's June technology post says eligible customers can combine a Subway restaurant order with Walmart Express groceries and that Walmart built menu, customization, ordering, fulfillment and delivery capabilities into the experience. Dunkin' expands that first-party interface.
Amazon's Q2 10-Q reports shipping costs of $27.9 billion in the second quarter and $53.6 billion in the first half, versus $23.4 billion and $45.9 billion a year earlier. The category includes inbound and outbound shipping, sortation, delivery centers and transportation-provider costs, so the 19.2% quarterly and 16.8% first-half increases cannot be assigned to internalization alone. Amazon's over-$4 billion rural-network investment is quantified network headroom, not a realized saving.
| Measure | Figure | Time basis / population |
|---|---|---|
| Walmart-Dunkin' first phase | 150 locations | Planned rollout announced September 3, 2026 |
| Dunkin' planned reach | Majority of approx. 10,000 outside Walmart | Future U.S. plan |
| Amazon own-network allocation | 86.3%, 87.4%, 88.7% | Preliminary reported forecasts for 2027-2029 |
| Amazon shipping costs | $27.9bn / $53.6bn | Q2 / first half 2026; broad cost category |
| UPS largest-customer volume | Down more than 50% | Q2 2026 10-Q versus 2024 |
Outside networks still carry the evidence
UPS says it reduced its largest customer's volume by more than 50% from 2024 levels and closed 45 buildings in the first half of 2026, 44 permanently. The filing does not name Amazon or assign every closure to one customer.
The restaurant-marketplace buffer is still visible. DoorDash reported 2025 Marketplace GOV of $102 billion and a 13.4% net-revenue margin. Uber reported Q2 Delivery revenue up 28% year on year and Delivery Gross Bookings up 26%. No company disclosure attributes a current volume or take-rate loss to Walmart's Dunkin' rollout.
The closest historical reference is Amazon's 2023 shareholder letter, published April 11, 2024, which described its last-mile capability as roughly the size of UPS. If Walmart reaches most of its planned Dunkin' footprint, restaurant-ordering volume has a retailer-owned interface. If Amazon's 88.7% forecast becomes realized, outside-carrier substitution grows. If neither occurs, marketplaces and specialist carriers retain more marginal volume. The evidence does not show their end.
For AMZN and WMT investors, route density, delivery cost and repeat usage are the relevant operating variables. UPS and FedEx investors should watch customer mix, yield and facility productivity. DoorDash and Uber investors should watch restaurant order growth, take rates and merchant retention in markets where Walmart expands. CTOL desk analysis assigns a 55% probability that by December 31, 2026 a parcel carrier or restaurant marketplace will explicitly attribute volume or take-rate pressure to retailer internalization. The next earnings call or filing with a named customer and comparable metric will decide it.