X Rebounds With Ad Growth and Prepares Payment Service Launch as Debt Challenges Loom
X's Financial Renaissance: Payment Features and Ad Recovery Signal Ambitious "Everything App" Strategy
Platform's First Growth Since Musk Era Begins as X Money Prepares for Launch
X is staging what could be its most significant business transformation since Elon Musk's turbulent 2022 acquisition. The platform is on track to achieve its first annual advertising revenue growth in three years, while simultaneously preparing to launch X Money—a payments service that could fundamentally reshape the company's business model and competitive position.
According to internal projections, X's U.S. advertising revenue is expected to increase by 17.5% to $1.31 billion in 2025, with global ad sales forecast to rise 16.5% to $2.26 billion. This rebound comes after years of advertiser exodus and brand safety concerns that plagued the platform following Musk's takeover.
"The recovery isn't just about better sales execution," notes a senior digital media analyst. "There's a complex calculus happening where some advertisers view spending on X as practically obligatory given Musk's growing political influence in Washington."
An everything app is a digital platform designed to consolidate a wide range of services and functionalities—such as messaging, social media, payments, shopping, travel bookings, and more—into a single, unified application. The concept aims to streamline users’ digital lives by providing a one-stop hub for most, if not all, of their daily digital needs. The most prominent example globally is China’s WeChat, which integrates messaging, payments, social networking, e-commerce, and more within one app.
X Money: The Super App Foundation Takes Shape
Perhaps more consequential than the advertising recovery is X's imminent launch of X Money, a payments service that will debut in the United States later this year. The platform has secured money transmitter licenses in 41 states—a crucial regulatory achievement that paves the way for a nationwide rollout.
Visa has signed on as X's first financial partner, enabling users to fund X Wallets directly from Visa debit cards or bank accounts. The initial service will focus on peer-to-peer transactions similar to Venmo, but CEO Linda Yaccarino has described the Visa partnership as just the "first of many" announcements expected throughout 2025.
"What we're witnessing is the foundation being laid for a Western version of WeChat," explains a fintech consultant who has worked with multiple social platforms. "The combination of social communication, payments, and eventually trading creates powerful network effects that could lock users into X's ecosystem."
Table summarizing the main pros and cons of "everything apps," highlighting their potential benefits and challenges for users and businesses.
| Pros | Cons |
|---|---|
| Convenience & efficiency | Privacy & security risks |
| Streamlined onboarding | Complexity & usability challenges |
| Enhanced functionality | Single point of failure |
| Potential for innovation | Regulatory hurdles |
| Business growth opportunities | Vendor lock-in & monopoly concerns |
| Holistic user experience | Cultural/regional adaptation issues |
| Trust and transparency issues |
Wall Street's Skeptical Optimism
Despite the positive developments, Wall Street remains cautiously optimistic about X's prospects. The platform faces significant challenges, including a highly leveraged capital structure with approximately $13 billion in debt and annual interest payments of $1.3-1.5 billion.
"Even with the advertising rebound, X is operating with virtually no margin for error," cautions a veteran tech investor. "The debt service alone consumes most of the available cash flow, meaning execution must be flawless for the equity to have meaningful upside."
The company's valuation reflects this tension. Based on the latest Fidelity mark, X carries an implied enterprise value of approximately $12 billion—a figure some analysts consider optimistic given the current financial reality.
The Ghost of User Engagement
Behind the financial engineering and product launches lurks a troubling metric: declining user engagement. Median engagement per post has fallen from 0.029% in 2024 to 0.015% year-to-date in 2025, according to platform data.
This deterioration creates a paradox for investors. While advertisers may be returning to the platform, the audience they're reaching appears increasingly disengaged—a dynamic that could eventually undermine the nascent advertising recovery.
"The platform is caught in a confidence trap," explains a social media researcher. "Advertisers are returning because they see others returning, but the fundamental user behavior metrics continue to weaken. Something has to give."
Betting on the X Ecosystem
Despite these challenges, X's vision extends far beyond its current capabilities. The company has implemented "cashtags" for real-time financial data and explored partnerships with platforms like eToro to enable stock trading within the app.
These initiatives align with Musk's stated ambition to transform X into an "everything app" that combines social media, payments, financial services, and possibly cryptocurrency features—though crypto functionality is not confirmed for X Money's initial launch.
"X has something no financial app can easily replicate: a native social graph with built-in virality," notes a payments industry consultant. "If they can solve the trust and security challenges, the cost of customer acquisition for financial services could be dramatically lower than traditional fintech players."
Investment Perspectives: Risk and Opportunity
For sophisticated investors, X presents a complex proposition. The bull case envisions revenue growing at an 18% compound annual rate through 2030, with EBITDA margins expanding to 30% and a potential enterprise value approaching $9-10 billion. The bear case, however, sees minimal growth, collapsing margins, and an enterprise value of just $500 million—well below the outstanding debt.
Several trading strategies have emerged among institutional investors:
- Acquiring discounted X common shares while hedging credit risk through senior secured loans
- Implementing relative-value pairs trades, such as going long Visa (which benefits from X Money transaction volume) while shorting PayPal (most exposed to fee compression)
- Monitoring for refinancing announcements that could trigger significant tightening in credit spreads
"The asymmetric bet is in the credit, not the equity," suggests a distressed debt specialist. "If payments adoption materializes, senior secured spreads will collapse; if it fails, equity holders absorb the first losses."
The Road Ahead: Milestones to Watch
For investors tracking X's progress, several key milestones will signal whether the company's ambitious vision is materializing:
- Regulatory approvals in the remaining nine states (notably New York and California)
- Security posture and independent audits as X Money launches
- Beta release of trading features by Q1 2026
- Debt refinancing negotiations
- Engagement trends during the upcoming holiday quarter
The ultimate question remains whether X can execute its vision while carrying such significant leverage. As one hedge fund manager puts it: "X is essentially a call option on Musk's execution premium, wrapped inside a highly complex capital structure. The debt must be refinanced at single-digit coupons for the equity story to work—and that requires flawless execution on the product roadmap."
Disclaimer: This analysis is based on current market data and established economic indicators. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Readers should consult financial advisors for personalized investment guidance.